“DNA” vs. “RNA” vs. “mRNA”: The Differences Are Vital

 COVID-19 has set off many unprecedented events that will most likely change the world forever. Fortunately, they haven’t all been bad: the virus led to the remarkable development of vaccines at a pace and scale the likes of which have never before been seen in history. Both the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine and the Moderna vaccine use a relatively new technology that has been approved for the first time: mRNA vaccines. (The Oxford vaccine instead uses genetic material from what’s known as an adenovirus derived from chimpanzees.) 

These incredible developments, naturally, have led many people to dust off those old biology textbooks and try to remember what they learned about mRNA back in Biology 101. What do all those letters in mRNA stand for? How is it different from RNA? For that matter, what even is RNA? Does it have anything to do with DNA? In this article, we will answer all of these questions.

But first, we should quickly answer the most pressing question you might have: is it safe to take the COVID-19 vaccines or any mRNA vaccine? The answer is “Yes.” The new COVID-19 vaccines have gone through the same rigorous testing process as every other vaccine, as will any new mRNA vaccines developed in the future. If you’d like to know more about how the COVID-19 vaccines were tested for safety and approved, you can read about them in more detail as provided by the CDC and the WHO.

What is DNA?

To begin with, we must start with probably the best known of the three macromolecules (“big molecules”) we will be looking at today: DNA.

DNA stands for “deoxyribonucleic acid.” DNA is a large, complex molecule that carries and passes down the genetic code that makes up all living organisms. Because most people are at least somewhat aware of DNA’s very important role in life, DNA has come to metaphorically refer to “the set of nongenetic traits, qualities, or features that characterize a person or thing.” For example, we would say a love of words is part of the DNA of Dictionary.com.

DNA is found in the nucleus of cells of all living organisms. DNA is arranged in the shape of a double helix, which resembles a twisted ladder. The “rungs” of the ladder consist of base pairs of substances known as nitrogen bases. You might remember the four bases from science class: adenine, thymine, guanine, and cytosine. These base pairs are the reason why DNA is so important to life: the ordering of the base pairs results in a specific genetic code called a gene.

DNA consists of many genes and is itself organized into structures known as chromosomes, of which humans have 23 pairs. A fruit fly has four pairs of chromosomes, while a dog has 39 pairs. The genetic code in the genes and DNA tell the body how to make proteins. Proteins are extremely important for the survival of the body and you would be in big trouble if your cells couldn’t make proteins or accidentally made the wrong proteins.

We have merely scratched the surface of the complicated molecule that is DNA. To get a better idea of how important DNA is, here are some vocabulary words that explore concepts that are related to DNA:

RNA (we’ll be getting to this one shortly)

nucleic acid

nucleotides

nitrogen base

genes

genetics

protein

What is RNA?

RNA stands for “ribonucleic acid.” RNA is a large molecule made from a single strand of DNA, and one of its main roles is to transfer the instructions needed to make proteins.

While DNA has the instructions on how to make proteins, it is RNA that actually provides these instructions to the ribosomes, organelles in the cell that act as “protein factories” You see, DNA never actually leaves the cell’s nucleus. The nucleus instead builds a single-threaded molecule called RNA, which has a copy of the DNA’s instructions.

 Like DNA, RNA also has nitrogen bases that act as a code that the cell can read. The RNA then takes the copy of the instructions and delivers them to the ribosomes. There, RNA helps the ribosomes properly build the correct proteins that the body needs.

As you might guess, this is a simplified version of what actually happens in the cells. To get a better idea of what is actually going on with RNA, here are some vocabulary words that provide more details on the concepts surrounding RNA:

DNA

transcription

ribosome

protein

amino acid

protein synthesis

mRNA (we’ll be getting to this one)

tRNA

rRNA

DNA vs. RNA.

DNA and RNA are very similar. After all, RNA is supposed to be a copy of DNA. However, there are a few differences between the two molecules.

The biggest difference is in their shape: DNA is a two-stranded molecule in the form of a double helix. RNA, on the other hand, is a single-stranded molecule.The other major difference is in the nitrogen bases: RNA shares three of DNA’s bases but has a substance known as uracil that replaces thymine when the DNA is copied. To put it very simply, uracil requires less energy to maintain than thymine, but the presence of thymine makes DNA more stable.

What is mRNA?

There are several different types of RNA. One type of RNA is known as mRNA, which stands for “messenger RNA.” mRNA is RNA that is read by ribosomes to build proteins.

While all types of RNA are involved in building proteins, mRNA is the one that actually acts as the messenger. It is mRNA specifically that has the recipe for a protein. The mRNA is made in the nucleus and sent to the ribosome, like all RNA. Once it gets there, the mRNA bonds with the ribosome, which reads the mRNA’s nitrogen base sequence. Every three-bond sequence of mRNA relates to a specific amino acid, a “building block” of a protein. Amino acids must be arranged in a certain order to make a specific protein, and the mRNA has the blueprints that tell the ribosome which amino acids to get and how they should be arranged.

Other types of RNA, such as transfer RNA (tRNA) and ribosomal RNA (rRNA), help the ribosome actually build the protein. Once the protein is built, the mRNA’s job is over and it will degrade.

Again, this is a general look at what mRNA actually does. This list of vocabulary terms can help you learn more about mRNA’s job and about the other types of RNA.

RNA

tRNA

rRNA

DNA

transcription

ribosome

protein

amino acid

protein synthesis

How is mRNA used in COVID-19 vaccines?

Everything that has been said here doesn’t just apply to humans. Other organisms, including bacteria and viruses, also have DNA and/or RNA. The recent COVID-19 vaccines actually use mRNA from the virus itself in a rather sneaky way.

Usually, a vaccine uses a weakened or damaged version of a virus so that your body can have a “practice run” of fighting it. Your body will make antibodies that fight this weak form of the virus and thus will be able to recognize this same virus in the future and be able to quickly react to the real virus if ever exposed to it.

An mRNA vaccine works differently. Rather than inject a person with the actual virus, this type of vaccine instead injects the cells with some of the virus’s mRNA. This mRNA contains instructions on how to build “spike protein,” meaning the protein that is found on the spiky surface of a virus. This protein is harmless and has no ill effects on the body.

So, your cells will begin making this harmless spike protein. Your immune system will then recognize that this spike protein doesn’t belong in your body and make antibodies designed to destroy it. Making a long story short, this means your body will be able to recognize the spike proteins used by the actual virus. As a result, your immune system will immediately be able to make antibodies that swarm and kill the virus if it ever detects the spike protein in the body.

Luckily, you don’t have to become an expert in macromolecules for your body to function—or the vaccine to do its job. Your body automatically performs the complex functions described here to keep you alive. (Perhaps mastering some of the key terms associated with them is the least you could do!)

1. Arm yourself with more details about the Oxford vaccine known as ChAdOx1 nCoV-19.

WHAT IS CHADOX1 NCOV-19?

ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 is a potential vaccine for the coronavirus. Early results from trials show that the vaccine is safe and produces an immune response against the virus that causes COVID-19.

Another name for ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 is AZD1222, used especially in the context of the vaccine’s co-development by the University of Oxford, Vaccitech, and AstraZeneca. ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 is especially used in the context of Oxford’s leading role in first developing the vaccine.

WHAT DOES CHADOX1 NCOV-19 MEAN?

Scientists abbreviate the names of vaccines, which can be long, complex, and technical. Even their abbreviations, however, can be confusing or intimidating to laypeople.

ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 is no exception—which, we’ll admit, looks like a computer-generated password or a cyberpunk or gamer screen name if we didn’t know any better.

✅ ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 is a chimpanzee (Ch) adenovirus-vectored vaccine (Ad), whose development was led by the University of Oxford (Ox). It has been shown to stimulate an immune response to nCoV-19, the novel coronavirus first identified in 2019.

Now, let’s unpack the phrase chimpanzee adenovirus-vectored vaccine.

vaccine: a substance introduced into someone’s body to prevent them from getting a specific disease. It usually consists of a small amount of a killed, weakened, or otherwise modified version of a disease (such as a virus or bacterium).

vector: the agent that acts as carrier or transporter of the virus, which is injected into a patient to trigger a response from their immune system to fight off disease pathogens.

adenovirus: a type of that can cause respiratory and other illnesses in humans and other primates, including chimpanzees, from which ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 was specifically derived and is being used as the vaccine vector against COVID-19.

In conjunction with the spin-off biotechnology company Vaccitech, Oxford has developed more than one adenovirus-vectored vaccine, which it refers to as ChAdOx1 and ChAdOx2, hence the numeral 1 in ChAdOx1 nCoV-19.

You may recall that COVID-19 is the name of the disease caused by one type of coronavirus, which was newly detected (novel) in 2019. The name of the specific coronavirus that causes COVID-19 is severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, abbreviated as SARS-CoV-2.

EXAMPLES OF CHADOX1 NCOV-19:-

Still more research is ongoing, but it's looking like Oxford Uni's ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine could be the real deal (should also avoid some of the Big Pharma issues). @GossiTheDog, July 20, 2020.

The AZD1222 vaccine has been adapted from a common cold virus found in chimpanzees, with spike glycoprotein, a genetic material from the new coronavirus, added to it. Al Jazeera, July 21, 2020.

A UK Phase I/II trial began in April testing the Oxford coronavirus vaccine ChAdOx1 nCoV-19. The team started working to develop a vaccine against the global threat that is coronavirus in January 2020 and have been working with unprecedented urgency in a race against the coronavirus. Oxford Vaccine Group, July 20, 2020.

MORE INFORMATION ABOUT CHADOX1 NCOV-19

Vaccines generally take a long time to develop, as scientists need to ensure they are safe (don’t make patients sick) and efficacious (produce the desired immune response). To this end, scientists carry out a three-phase trial to test the vaccine, as the CDC explains:

During Phase I, small groups of people receive the trial vaccine. In Phase II, the clinical study is expanded and vaccine is given to people who have characteristics (such as age and physical health) similar to those for whom the new vaccine is intended. In Phase III, the vaccine is given to thousands of people and tested for efficacy and safety.

ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 is moving into Phase 2 and Phase 3 trials. Oxford University is partnering with the UK-based, international biopharmaceutical company AstraZeneca to scale up testing and manufacturing of the potential COVID-19 around the globe. Populations at high-risk of illness or death from COVID-19, such as people over the age of 65 and hospital workers, will be prioritized for the next trials.

So far, there have been well over 100 vaccine candidates for COVID-19, but none have been approved for prevention. As published online in the medical journal The Lancet on July 20, 2020, the initial results ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 are encouraging, positive news, but much more research is needed to determine how long the vaccine’s immune response lasts, how the vaccine affects vulnerable populations, and whether the vaccine can reduce and prevent infection.

In popular culture, some people have been making jokes about ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 resembles Chad, a slang term for a stereotypically masculine, sexually promiscuous young man.

NOTE. This is not meant to be a formal definition of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 like most terms we define on Dictionary.com, but is rather an informal word summary that hopefully touches upon the key aspects of the meaning and usage of ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 that will help our users expand their word mastery.

2.DNA. 

Genetics. deoxyribonucleic acid: an extremely long macromolecule that is the main component of chromosomes and is the material that transfers genetic characteristics in all life forms, constructed of two nucleotide strands coiled around each other in a ladderlike arrangement with the sidepieces composed of alternating phosphate and deoxyribose units and the rungs composed of the purine and pyrimidine bases adenine, guanine, cytosine, and thymine: the genetic information of DNA is encoded in the sequence of the bases and is transcribed as the strands unwind and replicate.

The set of nongenetic traits, qualities, or features that characterize a person or thing: Humility is just not in her DNA.

3. RNA. 

Genetics.

ribonucleic acid: any of a class of single-stranded molecules transcribed from DNA in the cell nucleus or in the mitochondrion or chloroplast, containing along the strand a linear sequence of nucleotide bases that is complementary to the DNA strand from which it is transcribed: the composition of the RNA molecule is identical with that of DNA except for the substitution of the sugar ribose for deoxyribose and the substitution of the nucleotide base uracil for thymine. 

Vaccines Experiments Continues...

 BREAKING NEWS

UK Government admit that the vaccines have damaged the natural immune systems of the double jabbed.

The British government has spilled the beans about that fact that once you get double jabbed, you will never again be able to acquire full natural immunity against Covid variants - or possibly any virus. 

So let’s watch the ‘real’ pandemic begin now! 

In its Week 42 “COVID-19 vaccine surveillance report,” the U.K. Health Security Agency admitted on page 23 that “N antibody levels appear to be lower in people who acquire infection following two doses of vaccination.” It goes on to explain that this antibody drop is basically permanent.

What’s this mean? 

We know the vaccines do not stop infection or transmission of the virus (in fact, the report shows elsewhere that vaccinated adults are now being infected at much HIGHER rates than the unvaccinated).

What the British are saying is they are now finding the vaccine interferes with your body’s innate ability after infection to produce antibodies against not just the spike protein but other pieces of the virus. Specifically, vaccinated people don’t seem to be producing antibodies to the nucleocapsid protein, the shell of the virus, which are a crucial part of the response in unvaccinated people.

In the long term, people who take the vaccine will be far more vulnerable to any mutations in the spike protein that might come along, even if they have already been infected and recovered once, or more than once.

The unvaccinated, meanwhile, will procure lasting, if not permanent, immunity to all strains of the alleged virus after being infected with it naturally even just once.

Read it for yourself.. Page 24. 

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1027511/Vaccine-surveillance-report-week-42.pdf

Canadian Doctors Speak Out About Covid-19

 2021 

Several Canadian doctors in the Canada Health Alliance made this

video showing that Covid-19 is less dangerous than the seasonal flu.

They show the best remedies for viral infections of any kind,

including the "Covid-19". More info on them below.

info@CanadaHealthAlliance.org.

Also, TogetherAsOne.cc has more videos on the plandemic.

http://togetherasone.cc/d/3.aspx

Thank you all for watching.

https://odysee.com/@RealNewsforever:a/Canadian-Doctors-Speak-Out-About-Covid-19:b

• It’s too late because over 80% of dumbass Canadians here have taken the Experiment Injections or have been forced to do so... with all these nano creatures that are aluminum that’s found in the vaccines themselves sounds like it’s out of a Sci-Fi movie but it’s not it’s real.... Genocide is what our Canadian government should be tried for....

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  @bryanchadwick
• covid 19 has never been isolated. biggest hoax since copernicus. if they used ivermectin on the sick then 100% cure. covid 19 symptoms are the same as the flu or radiation sickness. nuremburg tribunals coming. roll out the guillotines. it's a planet wide conspiracy to exterminate 7 billion of us. and genetically modify the rest
• 
  
• 

  
  
• free the flu. let the flu back in and cancel covid.

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• 5daysago

• too little too late... none of the worlds corrupt governments are ever going to stop unless forced to. each person that complies strengthens the propaganda narrative and seals the rest of our fates. why else would there be no exception to the shot, flat out ignoring those who were injured or killed by it. why else would they flat out deny that natural immunity is even a thing, despite the fact that it was widely recognized in 2019. sure change all the damn definitions so that they fit what the narrative is. the people at large have already been programmed., there's no deprogramming them now.

COVID-19 Vaccines: The Big Omicron Reboot ..

 

COVID-19 Vaccines: The Big Omicron Reboot For BioNTech, Moderna And Novavax

Dec. 15, 2021 1:51 PM ETPFE, BNTX, MRNA, NVAX105 Comments12 Likes

Sarel Oberholster

1.76K Followers

Summary

• The Omicron variant has made Wuhan based vaccines redundant, will replace Delta, and causes a milder version of covid.
• BioNTech, Novavax and Moderna will need to urgently develop an appropriate 2nd generation vaccine candidate.
• Each of the three will have advantages and disadvantages in a changed covid vaccine landscape.
• Omicron will disrupt the income and revenue expectations of all three vaccine manufactures on multiple levels.

chonticha wat/iStock via Getty Images

South Africa, on 24 November 2021, reported the discovery of a new SARS-CoV-2 variant which mutated significantly. It had been spreading silently, ostensibly originating somewhere in Africa with the South African incidents traced to Botswana. The new variant was also traced back to Egypt, Nigeria, Malawi, Namibia and Scotland. The origin of the new Omicron variant is still an unknown.

The World Health Organization (WHO) designated it a variant of concern within two days of the South African discovery and named it Omicron. Omicron has been spreading like wildfire around the world since 24 November 2021 and is destined to soon become the dominant variant globally, displacing the Delta variant.

There are a number of overarching themes relevant for investors in vaccine manufacturer's shares with regards to the Omicron variant.

1. It is an escape variant.
2. It has high transmissibility, enough to displace the Delta variant.
3. Reports so far has symptoms as mild to very mild.

Scientists prefer to have answers which are one hundred percent evidence based or as close as possible to it. Investors on the other hand cannot wait for that kind of certainty as markets react to the mere suggestion of a risk. It follows that an investment analysis of Omicron will have to evaluate the Omicron themes on a risk basis.

Omicron, the escape variant

The initial reports on Omicron suggested that it is heavily mutated and very specifically, heavily mutated on the spike protein upon which covid vaccines were modelled.

"The variant stood out because it contains more than 30 changes to the spike protein - the SARS-CoV-2 protein that recognizes host cells and is the main target of the body's immune responses. Many of the changes have been found in variants such as Delta and Alpha, and are linked to heightened infectivity and the ability to evade infection-blocking antibodies." Heavily mutated Omicron variant puts scientists on alert, Nature, 25 November 2021

The global alarm was raised in the first instance because of the heavily mutated spike protein, the very basis of the two go-to vaccines of BioNTech (NASDAQ:BNTX) and Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA). The scientists immediately expected the Omicron variant to evade vaccine protection.

The vaccine manufacturers took one look at Omicron and responded.

Moderna

"Moderna CEO says vaccines likely less effective against Omicron…Drugmaker CEO warns of "material drop" in vaccine effectiveness"

MODERNA ANNOUNCES STRATEGY TO ADDRESS OMICRON (B.1.1.529) SARS-COV-2 VARIANT, NOVEMBER 26, 2021

"First, Moderna has already tested a higher dose booster of mRNA-1273 (100 µg) in healthy adults.

Second, Moderna is already studying two multi-valent booster candidates in the clinic that were designed to anticipate mutations such as those that have emerged in the Omicron variant."

Third, Moderna will rapidly advance an Omicron-specific booster candidate (mRNA-1273.529).

Novavax

"Novavax (NASDAQ:NVAX) has already initiated development of a new recombinant spike protein based on the known genetic sequence of B.1.1.529 and will have it ready to begin testing and manufacturing within the next few weeks," according to a statement issued Friday. "We will continue to work with urgency to address this latest strain and the continued evolution of COVID-19." 26 November 2021

Novavax Statement on Omicron Variant Response, Dec 2, 2021

"First, Novavax is evaluating its vaccine against the Omicron variant, as the company has done for previous variants including Alpha, Beta and Delta. Second, Novavax has initiated development of an Omicron-specific vaccine construct."

BioNTech

BioNTech waited until 8 December 2021 to issue a formal statement while the CEO of Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) was paving the marketing way.

"Preliminary laboratory studies demonstrate that three doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine neutralize the Omicron variant (B.1.1.529 lineage), while two doses show significantly reduced neutralization titers

Data indicate that a third dose of BNT162b2 increases the neutralizing antibody titers by 25-fold compared to two doses against the Omicron variant; titers after the booster dose are comparable to titers observed after two doses against the wild-type virus, which are associated with high levels of protection

As 80% of epitopes in the spike protein recognized by CD8+ T cells are not affected by the mutations in the Omicron variant, two doses may still induce protection against severe disease

The companies continue to advance the development of a variant-specific vaccine for Omicron and expect to have it available by March in the event that an adaption is needed to further increase the level and duration of protection - with no change expected to the companies' four billion dose capacity for 2022"

All three covid vaccine manufacturers immediately started development of an Omicron specific vaccine formulation while Moderna and BioNTech indicated an expectation of lower efficacy against Omicron.

Independent researchers evaluated the BioNTech covid vaccine against Omicron. A South African study found a 41-fold decline in neutralization of Omicron.

A German study reported these results:

"triple BNT162b2-vaccinated (sampled 0.5 or 6 months after boosting) revealed an 11.4-, 37.0- and 24.5-fold reduction, respectively"

"Neutralization of Omicron was 32.8-fold reduced using sera from double BNT162b2-vaccinated and infected individuals"

Often, what is not said, may be more telling. Lab testing against Delta was allowed and accepted as proof that the vaccines were effective against the Delta variant. That was a very low bar requirement and the global desperation about COVID-19 allowed that to slip past the normal requirements for a clinical trial. It was corrected when the applications for boosters and for children were submitted. This low bar requirement of only lab testing should not be the scientific standard for Omicron given the available information on reduced efficacy. Clinical trials should be the standard for testing the efficacy of Omicron formulated vaccines and for any new bivalent or multivalent formulations.

The available scientific information as well as the widely reported cases of vaccine breakthrough cases is sufficient for a conclusion that the mRNA vaccines are no longer effective as primary vaccination in a two-dose prime-boost combination. The German study also indicated that a booster shot for a "triple" vaccination is not effective.

A UK study by the UK Health Security Agency reported the following results (preprint not peer reviewed).

"Among those who had received 2 doses of BNT162b2, vaccine effectiveness was 88.0% (95%CI: 65.9 to 95.8%) 2-9 weeks after dose 2, dropping to 48.5% (95%CI: 24.3 to 65.0%) at 10-14 weeks post dose 2 and dropping further to between 34 and 37% from 15 weeks post dose 2….Nevertheless, a moderate to high vaccine effectiveness of 70 to 75% is seen in the early period after a booster dose." Effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines against the Omicron (B.1.1.529) variant of concern

We now see dubious claims by politicians and vested interests which are not supported by any scientific studies or clinical trial evidence. Here are some from a BBC article:

"And vaccines are still likely to offer good protection against severe Covid that would need hospital treatment."

This a an almost standard inclusion in most comments or articles and yet there is no factual evidence that it is true for Omicron.

"although a third booster dose significantly increases protection to around 75%." Says the BBC, based upon the UK study which said something else entirely. Effectiveness of 70 to 75% in the early period after a booster dose seems to say the same as after the 2nd dose, some early efficacy after the booster, then waning rapidly after a few weeks.

The German study showed that a third dose may be as ineffective as two doses. There is no clinical study data to indicate that a booster shot will in fact make any difference to protection for a period longer than a couple of weeks. The UK study indicated that protection in the first 2-9 weeks were acceptable but could drop below 50% as early as after 2 weeks and by week 15 it was down to 34% to 37% effective. Boosters would probably follow the same trajectory. Expecting people to get a booster shot every 2-3 months will not gain public acceptance and the vaccine must be considered a failure against Omicron if its protection wanes below 50% after as little as 2 weeks.

Just look at the media, marketing and political statements, they all have inherent disclaimers, "likely to offer" (BBC), "around 75%" BBC, "may still induce protection against severe disease" (BioNTech/Pfizer) or "more robust protection may be achieved by a third dose" (BioNTech/Pfizer). Political and marketing talk, empty of any verifiable factual evidence.

The point is simply this, the current mRNA vaccines are no longer sufficiently effective against COVID-19. The science shows it, and the real-world reporting shows it. Novavax has yet to provide any information on the efficacy of its vaccine against Omicron but there is no reason to expect the Novavax vaccine to perform better than the mRNA vaccines in any material way as they also target the Wuhan spike protein which in the case of Omicron is heavily mutated from the Wuhan version which they have based their vaccine upon.

Scientists like to explain the neutralizing antibodies as a key to a lock. The neutralizing antibody generated by the vaccine will bind to the spike protein of the virus and prevent it from infecting the cells like a key that fits to a lock. A heavily mutated change in the spike protein, and the key cannot fit the lock. Neutralizing antibodies generated by a vaccine based upon the Wuhan strain can be generated en masse and still not bind or imperfectly bind to the spike protein of the Omicron variant which is, of course, why it is an escape variant.

I'll leave it to the marketers and politicians to argue why the Wuhan strain vaccines will still work but a new formulation will be required from all covid vaccine manufacturers from an investor point of view. No use to beat around the bush about it, Omicron escapes the current crop of covid vaccines far too efficiently. Selling ineffective vaccines as primary or as booster shots, politically and commercially, will increase vaccine hesitancy and destroy the public's trust in covid vaccines.

Omicron, highly transmissible and infectious, sufficient to become the dominant variant

The transmission characteristics of Omicron is also well enough established from an investor point of view.

"Omicron has the potential to spread much faster and infect vastly more people than Delta, says Tom Wenseleers, an evolutionary biologist at the Catholic University of Leuven in Belgium. Based on the rise in COVID-19 cases and on sequencing data, Wenseleers estimates that Omicron can infect three to six times as many people as Delta, over the same time period." How bad is Omicron? What scientists know so far, Nature, 02 December 2021

This chart from the UK Health Security Agency published on 10 December 2021 shows how Omicron is outcompeting Delta in the UK.

Source: SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern and variants under investigation in England, Technical briefing 31, 10 December 2021

The UK has also now given up on red-listing countries. "The red list was reintroduced in late November as a precaution after the emergence of the Omicron variant. But Health Secretary Sajid Javid said it had spread so widely the rules no longer had much purpose."

The WHO, Technical Brief published on 10 December concluded that it is likely that Omicron will outpace Delta where community transmission occurs.

"Based on current limited evidence Omicron appears to have a growth advantage over Delta. It is spreading faster than the Delta variant in South Africa where Delta circulation was low, but also appears to spread more quickly than the Delta variant in other countries where the incidence of Delta is high, such as in the United Kingdom. Whether Omicron's observed rapid growth rate in countries with high levels of population immunity is related to immune evasion, intrinsic increased transmissibility, or a combination of both remains uncertain. However, given the current available data, it is likely that Omicron will outpace the Delta variant where community transmission occurs."

The WHO Technical brief also states that Omicron has already been found in 63 countries as of 9 December 2021. The Economist proclaimed Omicron as the dominant variant in South Africa on 7 December 2021. The South African Minister of Health mentioned in a media briefing on 10 December 2021 that 70% of genomic sequencing results during November in South Africa were the Omicron variant. South Africa's active daily cases of covid was 20,601 on 23 November 2021, 20,610 on 24 November 2021 and 174,340 on 13 December 2021. Omicron already dominated at 70% of sequenced samples in November 2021. It is very likely that Omicron have now mostly displaced Delta in South Africa.

Available information on transmission and displacement is sufficiently robust for investors to reach a risk-based conclusion that Omicron will displace Delta as the dominant covid variant across the globe.

Omicron symptoms are generally mild to very mild

The GP who first alerted the world to the presence of Omicron advised that the symptoms were mild. I've seen the comments, what does she know she's just a GP? She also is the Chairperson of the South African Medical Association and discussed it with the other GP's who agreed with her. More South African doctors have stepped forward to support the view that the symptoms of Omicron are generally milder than Delta. It is also reported that the South Africa's National Institute for Communicable Diseases advised that only around 30% of hospitalized covid patients in recent weeks were seriously ill at less than half the number during previous waves of covid, average hospital days dropped to 2.8 days from 8 days during previous waves and recent deaths were only 3% of hospitalized patients as opposed to 20% during previous waves.

Even the WHO is prepared to now entertain the thought that Omicron may have milder symptoms though they are in the science camp of absolute proof.

"There are still limited data on the clinical severity of Omicron. While preliminary findings from South Africa suggest it may be less severe than Delta, and all cases reported in the EU/EEA to date have been mild or asymptomatic, it remains unclear to what extent Omicron may be inherently less virulent. More data are needed to understand the severity profile."

So, all the data so far point to less severity, but we are not yet prepared to call it says the WHO. Investors do not have this luxury of waiting for absolute certainty.

The Financial Times have done an excellent article on severity of Omicron on 7 December 2021, and showed Omicron relative to Delta causing less hospitalizations, less severe symptoms, less ICU requirements and less ventilation requirements.

The fast transmission of Omicron even with milder symptoms may cause hospitalization risks but no health care issues have developed in South Africa up to today, 14 December 2021. No sensational media reports of hospitals overwhelmed. In fact, the CEO of Netcare, the largest private hospital group in South Africa repeatedly said that admissions for covid is low, symptoms are mild and hardly any oxygenation therapy is required.

"The CEO of leading South African private hospital group Netcare says the 10,000-bed establishment has had just 22 Covid-19 mortalities in the past month compared with up to 50 per day during previous waves of infection. He says early indications are the virus is mutating just like the Spanish Flu did with successive waves becoming increasingly milder until the virus posed little risk to human beings." Netcare's CEO confirms early optimism on Omicron: fractional mortalities, few admissions, minimal oxygen support, 13th December 2021.

I have previously discussed the evolutionary arms race between host and parasite. The ideal development for the parasite (virus) is to co-exist with the host in an evolutionary equilibrium where the survival of both the host and the parasite is assured and the parasite causes minimal harm to the host. The case study of the introduction of the myxoma virus (MYXV) into the European rabbit population of Australia describes this evolutionary path.

The European rabbit is a pest in Australia. Australia introduced the MYXV virus as a biological control measure to the rabbit population as this virus is horribly fatal to rabbits. The virus decimated the rabbit population but over time both host (rabbit) and parasite (virus) coevolved to an evolutionary equilibrium where both survived and the attempt at biological control ultimately failed. The more scientific case study describes the outcome thus:

"This benign host-pathogen coexistence has been presented as a text book example of an evolutionary climax in which the pathogen causes little harm to the host and both host and pathogen survive."

There are no absolutes with regards to the evolutionary paths of both host and parasite. It is also disconcerting to read the history of the Australian attempt to eradicate the rabbits, which almost succeeded. It is a reminder that we as humans could have experienced a much worse outcome from a novel virus than what we did with covid. It is also a reminder of the important role played by the first generation of covid vaccines.

That does not change the reality of the emergence of the Omicron variant. It is following the traditional evolutionary script in the arms race between host and parasite. Once again, from an investor point of view it must be obvious that there is more than sufficient information available informing a view that the Omicron variant is a "milder" version of the SARS-CoV-2 virus.

Implications of Omicron for investors in covid vaccine manufacturers

The discussion above has more than sufficient investor actionable information on the three key results for vaccine manufacturers regarding Omicron. The highly likely answer to all three implications is in the affirmative. Omicron escapes Wuhan generation vaccine protection, Omicron will replace Delta, and Omicron is milder than Delta. The risk to investors is in ignoring these implications and not in embracing them.

What then are the consequences if all three are true, generally to all vaccine manufacturers and specifically to BioNTech, Novavax and Modena?

General implications, bluntly speaking.

1. The Wuhan variant vaccine formulations are now redundant and must be discontinued.
2. All manufacturing of Wuhan variant vaccine doses should be discontinued or reduced to an absolute minimum to avoid a stockpile of redundant vaccines.
3. Rolling out booster shots to ward against Omicron for a few weeks may have limited value and risk a public backlash.
4. New strategies will be required for 2nd generation vaccines, efficacious against Omicron and prior variants.
5. New strategies for vaccine distribution and public acceptance of booster shots will be required to counter vaccine hesitancy in the case of a milder Omicron variant circulating.
6. The process of developing a 2nd generation vaccine, completion of regulatory required clinical trials, and the repurposing of manufacturing for a new formulation will probably take longer than initial guidance.
7. Manufacturing of a new formulation may introduce manufacturing challenges, cost challenges, and teething problems.
8. Distribution of the covid vaccines may shift from mostly government procurement and roll-out, to the private sector, similar to the procedures for flu vaccines.
9. The unknowns of the transition from Wuhan based vaccines to a new Omicron covid vaccine landscape will be disruptive and will certainly impact the income and revenue expectations for vaccine manufacturers.

BioNTech

The BioNTech/Pfizer partnership has developed certain characteristics, some positive and some negative. Meticulous execution is their strongest advantage. Develop a 2nd generation vaccine, comply with regulatory requirements, and bring it to market. They have proven their competence in this regard and can be expected to produce a similar result. The advantage of cash on hand from Wuhan variant-based vaccine sales will significantly strengthen their hand.

Two limiting factors stand out. Toxicity of the mRNA platform which may limit their ability to develop a multivalent, 2nd generation vaccine candidate and the albatross of the BioNTech vaccine logistics. Perhaps they can solve both but there is nothing right now which indicate that they will have guaranteed success on the limiting factors.

Comment: My expectation is that BioNTech would successfully formulate a new candidate vaccine which will protect against Omicron specifically and potentially formulate a suitable bivalent, perhaps Delta/Omicron or Wuhan/Omicron, for a reasonable all-round protection. I do not expect them to have any logistical solutions which would have a material impact on their logistical limitations. The new vaccine candidate combined with their execution strength may get them to market before Moderna and Novavax, but side effects could become a major stumbling block where Omicron has mild symptoms. The BioNTech/Pfizer partnership will be best placed to navigate a transition to covid vaccine distribution by the private sector. BioNTech/Pfizer can be expected to successfully navigate legal agreements on manufacturing of components, sales, and advance purchase agreements.

Novavax

The virtual silence from Novavax is not ideal under the circumstances. Novavax has only recently filed applications for the approval of their Wuhan based vaccine candidate. Manufacturing issues, delays and regulatory applications were problematic for Novavax. The arrival of Omicron will probably require them to start from scratch with a new 2nd generation vaccine candidate. They will then have to repeat the manufacturing and regulatory compliance steps without the cash buffers which BioNTech and Moderna will have. Novavax has the most advantageous vaccine platform with potential to develop a 2nd generation multivalent candidate vaccine even combined with an Influenza vaccine. The manufacturing challenges for producing such a vaccine candidate, given its track record, may once again relegate them to being a laggard.

Comment: My expectation is that Novavax could develop the best suited 2nd generation vaccine candidate for the changed vaccine landscape. I would need some convincing with regards to the manufacturing of such a 2nd generation vaccine candidate at scale as well as the timely compliance with regulatory requirements. Manufacturing at scale not only at SII but also at the Novavax controlled or owned facilities. Novavax, as with Moderna, has no retail distribution experience or networks which will be a major disadvantage should the vaccine market move from the public to the private sector. The complexity of the Novavax manufacturing arrangements with multiple parties may pose legal challenges to Novavax to realign all agreements to a new vaccine candidate.

Moderna

Moderna's mRNA Wuhan vaccine candidate has a higher dosage and less advantageous safety profile than the BioNTech Wuhan vaccine candidate, to the extent that some EU countries do not recommend the vaccine for use in persons under the age of 30. The Moderna logistical arrangements are also generally challenging. Moderna has a proven track record of manufacturing at scale and the ability to complete the processes required to develop a new vaccine candidate as well as achieving regulatory approvals. The toxicity of its vaccine candidate and the side effects already limiting its distribution and acceptance will hamper its ability to develop a multivalent 2nd generation vaccine candidate.

Comment: I expect Moderna to successfully develop an Omicron 2nd generation vaccine candidate and potentially a bivalent candidate. Moderna should also be well placed to manufacture such a 2nd generation vaccine candidate. Moderna, as with Novavax, has no distribution network to sell its vaccine candidate should the market shift from the public sector to the private sector. Any new vaccine candidate with similar side effects as the previous versions will probably struggle in an environment where Omicron causes mild or asymptomatic disease. I would expect that Moderna will again attempt to ride in the BioNTech/Pfizer slipstream internationally mostly targeting developed world markets and to develop a private sector presence in the USA market.

Conclusion

1. A forward-looking market will evaluate the vaccine manufacturers based upon available information on Omicron in a changed covid vaccine landscape.
2. Three key issues arise from the arrival of the Omicron variant. The current Wuhan based formulations will most likely be made redundant by an escape variant Omicron. Omicron will most likely become the dominant variant and all information so far indicate that it will be a milder version than Delta.
3. Each of the three key issues has consequences for a changed vaccine environment which carries a high risk of negative disruption to vaccine manufacturers and a significant reboot of the covid vaccine market.
4. The size of the post-Omicron covid vaccine market cannot be established without more certainty as to the consequences of the changed marketing requirements and the characteristics of 2nd generation vaccine candidates. We'll have to return to this aspect once we have suitable information.
5. Attempts to sell the now redundant Wuhan based vaccines to the public as still their best option could backfire very badly with more vaccine hesitancy and an attitude of, what's the purpose, when protection is fleeting.
6. Investors in vaccine stocks should clinically evaluate the risks introduced by the Omicron variant to the revenue and income expectations for each vaccine manufacturer and its implications for the share price of each.

This article was written by

Sarel Oberholste

1.76K Followersw

My retail trader book series, The Paranoid Trader and The BIG FISH Trader, is now available on Amazon. It is a strategy guide for Retail Traders/Investors to motivate them to become profitable Traders/Investors and then remain profitable. Equally important to experienced Retail Traders/Investors, as it reinforces winning trading strategies. I seek understanding in everything but economics, markets and investing are where my mind is most at ease. In this I am forever doing research in my quest for answers. I do view the world from many different angles. Understanding economic behavioral patterns are important to me. Strategic investing over the medium to longer term is predominantly my focus when I contemplate my research or philosophies. I have a compulsion to express my thoughts in ordered form and my essays are the result of such expressions. I'm an economist by training, a financial engineer by talent, a banker by profession, a trader by interest and a father by chance.

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Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, but may initiate a beneficial Short position through short-selling of the stock, or purchase of put options or similar derivatives in BNTX, MRNA, NVAX over the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

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