(English & Chinese versions)
Succession Planning: The HAIR System
Introduction
Selecting the right leaders is most important not only in commercial businesses, but also in Government services, non-profit organizations and monarchies. This underlines the importance of succession planning.
Importance of Wealth Creators
Ngiam Tong Dow, former Permanent Secretary in Singapore Prime Minister’s office, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Trade, the Ministry of Communications and the Ministry of National Development lamented that:
“Though our education system has produced an abundance of wealth managers, we have precious few wealth creators. Graduates in accounting, law, economics, engineering and medicine, rush heading for managerial jobs in banks, industry and government.
Only a tiny few take the plunge to start their own enterprises. Why so? In my contact with successful entrepreneurs, the singular characteristic that differentiates the wealth creator from the wealth manager is that the tycoon thinks out of the box. The CEO thinks within the box.
When the best and the brightest of Oxbridge and the Ivy League head straight for the City of London and Wall Street on graduation, their countries will inevitably go into relative economic decline. While wealth management may reward the talented individual banker handsomely, it does nothing to increase the wealth of their country.”
Interestingly, Andrew Yang, author of “Smart People Should Build Things” shared the same view as Nglam Tong Dow and decided to start Venture for America.
Dr. Goh Keng Swee
In a future article, I will write about Dr. Goh Keng Swee, one of the founding fathers of modern Singapore to illustrate the point that Nglam Tong Dow has made. Singapore was lucky to have had a team of capable ministers when it became a republic, to steer it from third world to first.
Background on Royal Dutch Shell
Royal Dutch Shell (or Shell for short) is Europe’s largest energy and oil company. It was formed by the merger of Holland’s Royal Dutch and Britian’s Shell in 1907. The BBC reported in early 2007 that the Anglo-Dutch company earns US $2.5 million per hour. In 2013, Shell topped the Fortune Global 500 list of the world’s largest companies, with revenues in excess of $467 billion (or 84 per cent of the Netherland’s GDP). It has 92,000 employees in 70 countries. Until recently, it was considered one of the best companies.
Shell in Singapore: Shaping our future today
What is a Leader?
There is no universal definition of what is a leader. There is even some confusion between what is a leader versus a manager, a supervisor and a team leader.
For the purpose of spotting potential leaders, we must first know what we are looking for.
I choose to adopt the 2 statements made by Joel Barker:
- A leader is someone that you choose to follow to a place you would not go by yourself.
- The role of leadership is to find, recognize and secure the future.
According to Fons Trompenaars in his paper “The Quest for a New Paradigm of International Leadership,” there are inadequacies inherent with the three categories of leadership theory (trait theory, behavioral theory and situational theory”. Instead of hatching an independent theory, he was trying to formulate an integration theory.
The Singapore Civil Service
In his book “Public Administration Singapore Style”, Jon S.T. Quah spoke about the adoption and adaption of Shell International’s HAIR performance appraisal (sucession planning) system.
“In his memoirs, former Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew revealed that he had ‘checked with corporate leaders of multinational corporations how they recruited and promoted their senior people, and decided that one of the best systems was that developed by Shell…….After trying out the system and finding it practical and reliable, he adopted it for the public service in 1983, replacing the British system that it inherited……Shell’s focus on identifying the long-term potential of its employees was ‘ deemed worthy emulation due to its perceived applicability to the SCS and emphasis on personnel development………The officer’s short term potential is based on the likelihood of his promotion to the next grade. His long –term potential is measured as the currently estimated potential (CEP) which is the current estimate of the highest level at which an administrator can finally measure to perform successfully, assuming unlimited opportunities.”
As a disclaimer, I am not aware of the details of how the HAIR performance appraisal system is being implemented in the Singapore Civil Service nor whether is it still in use today. My first and only encounter with it was when my former employer, a Singapore bank was either using it or making reference to it. I only saw it in the archives.
HAIR Qualities
J.Van Lennep and Herman Muller were commissioned by Shell Petroleum International to devise a new appraisal (succession planning) system for Shell’s ageing and increasingly inadequate system. The qualities used for assessment are:
- H (High level vision from a Helicopter)
- A (Power of Analysis)
- I (Imagination)
- R (Sense of Reality)
Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew praised this system for its simplicity and clarity of focus.
Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew, Guest of Honor at Shell’s 120th anniversary celebrations in 2011. He was asked about the HAIR system at 5:40 minutes portion of this video.
Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew was at NUS Kent Ridge Ministerial Forum 2009 and in an answer to the floor spoke about how Ministers were being selected
The 9 Box Grid
The 9-box model is also called the Performance and Potential Model. You can see for yourself that it is ineffective for assessing employee performance and their future potential simply because the qualities for assessment have never been defined. It is only a slotting tool.
Source: PinQConsult
My Principles for Succession Planning
The first principle that I adopted for succession planning is this: Performance appraisal is used for appraisal of performance in the current job and for any merit salary adjustments; potential appraisal is for assessment of potential for the next job or higher job level.
The second principle that I adopt is leaders are found and not develop.
The third principle is leaders may lie hidden at any layers of the organization structure. Opportunities for performance and grooming will help with the uncovering of people with the required qualities. However, a person that you groomed will shine only if they possess the required qualities.
The fourth principle is that the direct supervisor or manager should not be the one to write the potential appraisal report because of the possibility of bias. Very few people would want to promote their subordinates to the same level or to a higher level than themselves.
An experienced appraisal panel is essential.
The fifth is evidences of the required qualities in terms of results need to be collected over time so that decision when made is based on facts (results).
Update on 18 April 2015: Life’s Passages as a Facilitator of Leadership Development
“Leaders who have endured adversity are most likely to be the ones with the resilience and resolve to succeed. Very often, the lessons learned from confronting fear and uncertainty, and from experiencing frustration, transform good leaders into great ones.
We call these adverse and diverse experiences ‘passages,’ because they take you from one place to another: You see the world and yourself differently after you’ve gone through the events and emotional states that define each passage.
In many companies today, leadership development tends to be managed in a fairly narrow way. Attributes of leadership are identified, usually based on performance competencies of current high-visibility leaders. Leadership development aimed at this target is then undertaken in a classroom-oriented, skill-based, cognitive environment.
But when competencies define selection and promotion, individuals who become leaders may be strong performers but not strong leaders, only because the depth of experience is often not defined by competencies and leadership models.”
Source: “Adversity: What Make A Leader the Most” Written David L.Dotlich Published in Ivey Business Journal January/February 2005
Update on 16 April 2015: How Lee Kuan Yew Groom Succeeding Ministers
The following is an excerpt taken from Mr S.Dhanabalan Eulogy for Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew:
“The second point is how he planned succession. What is still vivid in my mind is the time and mental energy he spent to prepare us for the responsibilities ahead. Much of the time in Cabinet meetings was spent with him sharing his experience in politics, in policy making and policy implementation. He circulated and discussed critically, essays and commentaries from journals and newspapers.”
“When he made official visits and went to conferences, he always made it a point to take a few of us in the younger team along with him to familiarise us with how to interact with the leaders of other nations and observe how to probed, to get a better understanding of global events. He would always try to seek the relevance to Singapore of his, as well as our observations.”
“We were deeply sensitised to looking at everything in terms of what we could do in and for Singapore or, equally important, what we should avoid doing. Mr Lee never tired of repeating his war stories, observations, and conclusions about events and personalities. To me he was Minister Mentor from the time I started working with him.”
Source: The Life of Mr Lee Kuan Yew Written by Gregory Leow, InSing website 24 March 2015
Event in 1990
After 29 years, Lee Kuan Yew stepped down and Goh Chok Tong became Singapore’s second Prime Minister, after a brief swearing-in ceremony on 28 November 1990.
“I had been Prime Minister for 31 years. To have stayed on for another term would have proved nothing except that I was still fit and effective. On the other hand, if in the years that I had left, I was able to help my successor get a grip on his job and succeed, that would be my final contribution to Singapore.” Lee Kuan Yew
Source: The Life of Mr Lee Kuan Yew Written by Gregory Leow, InSing website 24 March 2015
Event in 2004
Lee Hsien Loong (right) became Singapore’s third Prime Minister succeeding Goh Chok Tong, who was in power for 14 years. Later, Goh became Senior Minister as Lee’s closest adviser.
“Many of my critics thought this smacked of nepotism, that he was my unduly favoured because he was my son. On the contrary, as I told the party conference in 1989, the year before I resigned, it would not be good for Singapore or for Loong to have him succeed me. He would be seen as having inherited the office from me when he should deserve the position on his own merit…For several years Chok Tong had to endure the jeers of foreign critics that he was a seat warmer for Loong. But after Chok Tong won his second general elections in 1997 and consolidated his position as his own man, the jeering stopped.” Lee Kuan Yew
REFERENCES
The Quest for a New Paradigm of International Leadership Written by Fons Trompenaars
Leaders in Wealth Creation: Jurong Versus Shenton Way? Written by Nglam Tong Dow
http://www.eng.nus.edu.sg/iel/LEADERS%20IN%20WEALTH%20CREATION.pdf
(中英文版本)
继任计划：HAIR 系统
2015 年 1 月 16 日
简介
选择合适的领导人不仅在商业企业中最重要，而且在政府服务、非营利组织和君主制中也很重要。 这强调了继任计划的重要性。
财富创造者的重要性
新加坡总理办公室、财政部、贸易部、交通部和国家发展部前任常任秘书 Nglam Tong Dow 感叹：
“虽然我们的教育系统培养了大量的财富管理者，但我们很少有财富创造者。 会计、法律、经济、工程和医学专业的毕业生纷纷前往银行、工业和政府部门担任管理职位。
只有极少数人冒险创业。 为什么会这样？ 在我与成功企业家的接触中，财富创造者与财富管理者的唯一区别在于大亨的思维方式跳出常规。 CEO 在盒子里思考。
当牛津剑桥和常春藤联盟中最优秀、最聪明的学生毕业后直奔伦敦金融城和华尔街时，他们的国家将不可避免地陷入相对的经济衰退。 虽然财富管理可能会给有才华的个人银行家带来丰厚的回报，但对增加他们国家的财富毫无作用。”
有趣的是，《聪明的人应该建造事物》一书的作者安德鲁·杨与 Nglam Tong Dow 持有相同的观点，并决定创办 Venture for America。
吴庆瑞博士
在以后的文章中，我将写关于现代新加坡的创始人之一吴庆瑞博士的文章，以说明 Nglam Tong Dow 提出的观点。 新加坡很幸运，在它成为共和国时拥有一支能干的部长团队，带领它从第三世界走向第一世界。
荷兰皇家壳牌的背景
荷兰皇家壳牌（或简称壳牌）是欧洲最大的能源和石油公司。 它由荷兰皇家荷兰公司和英国壳牌公司于 1907 年合并而成。 BBC 在 2007 年初报道称，这家英荷公司每小时的收入为 250 万美元。 2013 年，壳牌以超过 4,670 亿美元的收入（占荷兰 GDP 的 84%）位居《财富》全球 500 强榜单之首。 它在 70 个国家/地区拥有 92,000 名员工。 直到最近，它才被认为是最好的公司之一。
壳牌在新加坡：今天塑造我们的未来
什么是领导者？
什么是领导者并没有统一的定义。 领导者与经理、主管和团队领导者之间甚至存在一些混淆。
为了发现潜在的领导者，我们必须首先知道我们在寻找什么。
我选择采用乔尔·巴克 (Joel Barker) 的 2 句话：
领导者是您选择跟随到您不会自己去的地方的人。
领导力的作用是发现、认识和保障未来。
根据 Fons Trompenaars 在他的论文“对国际领导力新范式的探索”中，领导力理论的三类（特质理论、行为理论和情境理论）存在固有的不足。 试图制定一个整合理论。
新加坡公务员
在他的《新加坡公共管理风格》一书中，Jon S.T. Quah 谈到了壳牌国际 HAIR 绩效评估（继任计划）系统的采用和调整。
“前总理李光耀在回忆录中透露，他曾‘与跨国公司的企业领导人核实过他们如何招聘和提拔高层人员，并决定最好的系统之一是壳牌开发的……。 1983 年，他发现该系统实用且可靠，将其用于公共服务，取代了它继承的英国系统……壳牌专注于识别员工的长期潜力，因此被认为值得效仿，因为它被认为是值得效仿的 对 SCS 的适用性和对人员发展的重视…………军官的短期潜力取决于他晋升到下一个级别的可能性。 他的长期潜力被衡量为当前估计的潜力 (CEP)，这是当前对最高级别的估计，管理员最终可以衡量成功执行的最高水平，假设机会无限。”
作为免责声明，我不知道新加坡公务员系统如何实施 HAIR 绩效评估系统的细节，也不知道它今天是否仍在使用。 我第一次也是唯一一次遇到它是当我的前雇主新加坡银行正在使用它或参考它时。 我只在档案里看到过。
头发质量
J.Van Lennep 和 Herman Muller 受壳牌石油国际公司的委托，为壳牌老化和日益不足的系统设计了一个新的评估（继任计划）系统。 用于评估的质量是：
H（直升机的高水平视野）
A（分析能力）
I（想象）
R（现实感）
部长导师李光耀称赞该系统的简单性和重点明确。
2011 年壳牌公司成立 120 周年庆典的主宾，李光耀部长导师。 在这段视频的 5:40 分钟部分，他被问及 HAIR 系统。
部长导师李光耀在 2009 年国大肯特岭部长级论坛上，在回答发言时谈到了部长是如何被选拔的
9 方格网格
9 盒模型也称为性能和潜力模型。 您可以亲眼看到，评估员工绩效及其未来潜力是无效的，因为评估的质量从未被定义过。 它只是一个开槽工具。
资料来源：PinQConsult
我的继任计划原则
我在继任计划中采用的第一个原则是：绩效评估用于评估当前工作的绩效和任何绩效工资调整； 潜力评估是对下一份工作或更高工作级别的潜力进行评估。
我采用的第二个原则是领导者是发现而不是培养的。
第三个原则是领导者可以隐藏在组织结构的任何层次。 表演和修饰的机会将有助于发现具有所需素质的人。 但是，您所培养的人只有具备所需的品质才能发光。
第四个原则是，由于存在偏见的可能性，直接主管或经理不应成为潜在评估报告的撰写人。 很少有人愿意将下属提升到与自己相同或更高的级别。
一个经验丰富的评估小组是必不可少的。
第五个是需要随着时间的推移收集结果方面所需质量的证据，以便做出决定时基于事实（结果）。
2015 年 4 月 18 日更新：作为领导力发展促进者的人生历程
“经历过逆境的领导者最有可能拥有成功的韧性和决心。 很多时候，从面对恐惧和不确定性以及经历挫折中吸取的教训，可以将优秀的领导者转变为伟大的领导者。
我们将这些不利和多样化的经历称为“段落”，因为它们会将您从一个地方带到另一个地方：在您经历了定义每个段落的事件和情绪状态之后，您会以不同的方式看待世界和自己。
在当今的许多公司中，领导力发展往往以相当狭窄的方式进行管理。 领导力的属性被确定，通常基于当前高知名度领导者的绩效能力。 然后在以课堂为导向、以技能为基础的认知环境中进行针对这一目标的领导力发展。
但是，当能力定义了选拔和晋升时，成为领导者的个人可能是表现出色的人，但不是强有力的领导者，因为经验的深度通常不是由能力和领导模型定义的。”
资料来源：David L.Dotlich 撰写的“逆境：什么使领导者最重要”，发表于 Ivey Business Journal 2005 年 1 月/2 月
2015 年 4 月 16 日更新：李光耀如何培养继任部长
以下摘自 S.Dhanabalan 先生致李光耀部长的悼词：
“第二点是他如何规划接班人。 在我的脑海中仍然清晰的是，他为我们为未来的责任做好准备所花费的时间和精力。 内阁会议的大部分时间都是与他分享他在政治、政策制定和政策实施方面的经验。 他传播和讨论了来自期刊和报纸的评论文章和评论。”
“他出访和参加会议时，总是特意带我们几个年轻的团队一起去，让我们熟悉如何与其他国家的领导人互动，观察如何探讨、 更好地了解全球事件。 他总是试图寻求他的以及我们的观察与新加坡的相关性。”
“我们非常敏感地看待一切，我们可以在新加坡做什么，为新加坡做什么，或者同样重要的是，我们应该避免做什么。 李先生从不厌倦重复他关于事件和人物的战争故事、观察和结论。 对我来说，从我开始和他一起工作开始，他就是部长导师。”
资料来源：李光耀先生的生平 作者：Gregory Leow，InSing 网站 2015 年 3 月 24 日
1990年的事件
29 年后，李光耀下台，吴作栋在 1990 年 11 月 28 日的简短宣誓就职仪式后成为新加坡第二任总理。
“我当了 31 年的首相。 再留一个学期将证明什么都没有，除了我仍然健康有效。 另一方面，如果在我离开的这些年里，我能够帮助我的继任者把握住他的工作并取得成功，那将是我对新加坡的最后贡献。” 李光耀
资料来源：李光耀先生的生平 作者：Gregory Leow，InSing 网站 2015 年 3 月 24 日
2004年事件
李显龙（右）接替执政14年的吴作栋成为新加坡第三任总理。 后来，吴成为李的最亲密顾问的高级部长。
“我的许多批评者认为这带有裙带关系的味道，因为他是我的儿子，所以我过分宠爱他。 相反，正如我在 1989 年，即我辞职前一年的党代会上所说的那样，让他接替我对新加坡或龙都不利。 当他以自己的优点应得的职位时，他会被视为从我那里继承了这个职位……几年来，卓东不得不忍受外国评论家的嘲笑，说他是龙的暖暖的。 但在卓东在 1997 年赢得第二次大选并巩固他作为自己人的地位后，嘲笑停止了。” 李光耀
参考文献
Fons Trompenaars 撰写的对国际领导力新范式的探索
http://www.thtconsulting.com/Articles/The%20Quest%20for%20a%20New%20Paradigm%20of%20International%20Leadership.pdf
创造财富的领导者：裕廊与珊顿之路？ 由 Ngiam Tong Dow 撰写
http://www.eng.nus.edu.sg/iel/LEADERS%20IN%20WEALTH%20CREATION.pdf
- Former top civil servant Ngiam Tong Dow, who worked closely with Singapore's founding leaders and was known for being outspoken, died peacefully on Thursday (August 20, 2020) morning, his family said. He was 83. His family told The Straits Times that he had been in ill health for 4½ years.
Ngiam is survived by his wife, two children and three grandchildren.
Ngiam was known to be an outspoken civil servant who speaks his mind on matters related to Singapore.
Ngiam has served as the Permanent Secretary in the Prime Minister’s Office under Lee Kuan Yew, and later under Goh Chok Tong, as well as in other key ministries such as the Ministry of Finance, National Development, Trade and Industry.
He has also worked extensively with founding political leaders such as former Deputy Prime Minister, Goh Keng Swee, and former Finance Minister, Hon Sui Sen.
Ngiam's wake will be held at 4 Chestnut Avenue, Singapore 679490 from Aug. 21, 12pm to 10pm.
The cortege will leave for Mandai Crematorium on Aug. 23 for a private service.
In view of Covid-19, only a maximum of 30 people can be at the wake at one time.
The family requests all who wish to pay respects to observe safe distancing rules that will be implemented at the wake.
他的家人说，曾与新加坡开国领导人密切合作并以直言不讳着称的前高级公务员严东道于周四（2020 年 8 月 20 日）上午安详离世。 他享年 83 岁。他的家人告诉《海峡时报》，他身体状况不佳已有 4.5 年。
Ngiam 的妻子、两个孩子和三个孙子孙女幸存下来。
众所周知，Ngiam 是一位直言不讳的公务员，他会在与新加坡有关的事情上说出自己的想法。
Ngiam 曾担任李光耀总理办公室常任秘书，后来在吴作栋任内，以及财政部、国家发展部、贸易和工业部等其他重要部委。
他还与前副总理吴庆瑞和前财政部长韩瑞森等创始政治领导人进行了广泛合作。
Ngiam 的守灵仪式将于 8 月 21 日中午 12 点至晚上 10 点在 4 Chestnut Avenue, Singapore 679490 举行。
护送人员将于 8 月 23 日前往万礼火葬场进行私人服务。
鉴于 Covid-19，一次最多只能容纳 30 人。
家人要求所有希望表达敬意的人遵守将在醒来时实施的安全距离规则。
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