Tuesday, June 17, 2025

China Xǐ Jin Ping Lost His Power

 Okay, let's get started. So, I've been   saying for a while that Xi Jin Ping has lost power and that Beijing is undergoing a major political transition. But naturally, the big questions are what's next? How will this play out? Who is taking over? So, let's take a look at what's likely to happen in the next couple of months, if not years. At the center of the new leadership will be three men. So, here they are, (Wang Yang, Hu Chunhua, Zhang Youxia) and I've discussed them many times. Wong Yang, he's set to come out of retirement and take over as the party secretary. He's known as a seasoned and steady figure and he represents stability. And he will be the face of a smooth political transition. So that's one. Hu Chunhua, his promotion to premier was infamously blocked by Xǐ Jin Ping at the 20th Party Congress, triggering the dramatic moment when Hu Chunhua was escorted out of the meeting. Now, who is expected to finally take over as premier, replacing Li Qiang. Many see him as the political heir to former Premier Li Qiang both in policy style and approach. And we have Zhang Youxia, the man who started it all. Currently serving as vice  chairman of CMC. The Central Military Commission (CMC) is the highest military leadership body of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and the People's Republic of China (PRC), which heads the People's Liberation Army (PLA), the People's Armed Police (PAP), and the Militia of China. He has never been part of the standing committee of politburo before, ( politburo :The chief political and executive committee of a Communist party.)  but he's now expected to join it while carrying a gun symbolizing the military's decisive role in this power shift. Yes, you will have someone carrying the gun in the seven-members politburo standing committee. So who will fill the remaining seats? The remaining four seats on the new standing committee will reportly be determined through an internal voting process. Especially it's a selection process. There will be seven people. There are seven candidates competing for four positions. And the seven candidates are Dining, currently one of the standing committee members. He is actually the only member from the current party bureau standing committee who has a chance to enter. The next one, Ying Lee, who is currently the party secretary of Beijing Shoule, head of publicity department. And then we have the next fouring,  the vice premier of state council and then the party secretary of Shanghai and then Ya, party secretary of Chongqing and then vice chairman of the National People's Congress. He is the only one of the seven who is not a poly bureau member. So these seven people are said to be competing. Four of them will be selected to join the seven-person politburo standing committee. Now, if you look closely, several of these candidates like Dinguang and Ying Lee, they are Xi Jin Ping's close allies. I mean they were promoted by Xi Jin Ping but now they're being repositioned as tools for internal cleanup. Essentially, they're shifting from loyal aids to system approved liquidators of the Xi JinPing era. Meanwhile technocrats like Janguing Liule and Jangi, they are perceived as pragmatic  administrators with cross-fractional   appeal. They are generally accepted by all factions and they're ideal for ensuring a stable and productive  transition. Well, for now a provisional leadership team is quietly steering the ship. Wang and Hu Chung Hua are already stepping into their roles behind the scenes, even though Xi Jin Ping and Liang are still officially listed as party secretary general and premier. Internally the consensus on leadership change has already been reached. The next challenge is deciding how and when to make it public. According to insiders, an expanded politburo meeting is scheduled for mid June to finalize the plan. Xi Jin Ping wil resign at the meeting due to health reasons. And he will be replaced by a new leadership. This meeting will serve as a face saving, formal step to inform the broader party structure of the decision. While top level officials have already known that Xi Jin Ping is no longer in charge, but this meeting will legitimize this collective decision of the leadership change and make it official. And during the same time, the party is expected to announce the date of the upcoming Fourth Plan Plenary Session. It's a key step because all leadership transitions in the CCP must be ratified by the party's central committee before becoming public information. And the most  critical piece of this entire transition is this, Xi Jin Ping must appear to step down voluntarily. He will be allowed to exit the stage gracefully and efforts will be made to reassure his loyalists across the government that their positions aren't immediately at risk.  They just want to make sure his loyalists will be reassured for some stability for now. After the official announcement, the military will hold internal meetings to publicly reaffirm their loyalty to the new leadership. Reports and briefings will be circulated across the ranks, sending a clear message to the PLA that the party is still in charge. Only the face at the top has changed. Well, that's the plan. Now, the new leadership is already preparing for the media  firestorm that Xi Jin Ping's resignation will cause, both at home and abroad.  According to the leak, state media wil roll out a full-blown PR campaign. The message is that this is a peaceful transfer of power. And it's done for the long-term stability of the party and the country. After the announcement, Xi Jin Ping will likely make one or two carefully staged public appearances to maintain the illusion of a dignified exit. But behind the scenes, his movements will be closely monitored to prevent any attempts at a comeback. And then on the  international front, China's foreign ministry will begin diplomatic outreach to various countries, explaining the leadership shift and signaling continuity in foreign policy. So, as far as when the announcement will be made, there is no given date yet. But it can be as early as the second half of June. But all of this needs to be wrapped up before September 3th. That's the date of China's annual military parade commemorating the end of World War II. But the word is that Xi Jin Ping will not preside over the parade this year. That role will go to Wong Yang. And this event will be critical in showing both the domestic audience and the world that the new leader has the full backing of the party of the PLA and the state apparatus. So that date is fixed. Now what about Xi Jin Ping's inner circle? Sources say Xi and his family have already received verbal guarantees of their personal safety. As for his inner circle, the so-called Xi Jin Ping faction, the plan is to neutralize them gently. Some of them will be reassigned to symbolic roles. Others will be pushed aside quietly. Hardcore loyalists like these two ( ) ( ) will not be immediately purged as that could provoke backlash or even resistance. However, they will be placed under strict surveillance to prevent them from organizing or pushing back. Their media visibility and political influence will be gradually reduced. So it will be a silent fade out rather than a dramatic takedown. So it is a crucial two and a half months from now until September 3th. And here's the big picture. This is one analyst said that he thinks this announcement will come out and that all the publicity, the outreach to international communities, all of that will be done before the CCP leaders go to their summer retreat in Beth. So the word is that they want to focus on the new leadership team and new direction at Beth when they meet and not wasting their time negotiating with the Xi's faction. Interestingly, the Russians are actively discussing the CCP's power  transition in public. And they're saying that Xi Jin Ping won't preside over the coming September military parade.  And then one telegram channel called General SVR, which some of you may be familiar with. This channel claimed that Xi Jin Ping suffered multiple cardiac episodes over the last two weeks. Now, this account is well known in the west for publishing leaks about Kremlin's inner workings and Putin's health. Health crisis and this account or this channel is claimed to be run by current and former officers of Russia's foreign intelligence service, which is SVR. Of course, along with insiders from other state bodies. So according to one of their posts, a secret intelligence briefing was delivered to the Kremlin on June 9th stating that Xǐ Jin Ping had a heart attack during the night of May 25th, 2025. And on 26th, followed by two more episodes in early June. And doctors reportedly warned that if he continues intense public appearances, he could collapse on the spot. The channel also claims that the CCP leadership has reached consensus to remove Xǐ Jin Ping. But Xi's faction is still resisting this channel. Today it issued another post saying that Moscow is anticipating Beijing's new leadership being more pro-west. And they are anticipating that China~Russia relations will change or will make a turn. And Russian news outlet UDF this outlet published a piece on June 9th by journalist um Yuri Ganedin and the piece is titled in Chinese, "Lucenko bidding farewell to his friend Xi Jin Ping". The article described Xi Jin Ping's political future as unstable and categorized Lucashenko's recent visit to Beijing as more of a goodbye than a diplomatic mission. So yes, the Russians are watching China's power transition very closely and are now openly discussing it on their social media and in the press. So here's what it is. This is not just outside speculation. It is partially coordinated. The CCP may have deliberately allowed the rumors of Xi Jin Ping's health crisis to spread to Russia or even the power transition to pave the way for Xi Jin Ping to announce his resignation that's coming. So yes, Xi Jin Ping is reportly facing serious health issues. But whether or not he had a heart attack on those exact dates, does not really matter. The point is his health is being used as the pretext for his political exit and this saves both Xi Jin Ping's face and the party's face. 

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