打破常规的创意 Dǎpò chángguī de chuàngyì
Introduction: What's Luck Got to Do with It?
Part I Pattern-Breaking Ideas: The Counterintuitive Forces That Power Revolutionary Products
1 A Wave of Clarity: Introducing Inflection Theory
2 Harnessing Inflections: How Pattern Breakers Change the Rules
3 Timing Is Everything: One of the Dumbest Ideas Ever and How It Broke Through
4 Different Is... Different: She Gave Me That "You've Gone off the Rails Again" Look
5 Stress-Testing Your Insights: How Valid Is Your Insight?
6 Living in the Future: Where You Will Find Your Next Insight
7 Get out of the Present: Avoiding a Common Entrepreneur Mistake
目录
简介：运气与它有什么关系？
第一部分 打破模式的创意：推动革命性产品的反直觉力量
1 清晰的浪潮：引入拐点理论
2 利用拐点：打破模式者如何改变规则
3 时机就是一切：有史以来最愚蠢的创意之一以及它如何实现突破
4 与众不同就是……与众不同：她用一种“你又出轨了”的眼神看着我
5 压力测试你的洞察力：你的洞察力有多有效？
6 生活在未来：你将在哪里找到下一个洞察力
7 走出当下：避免常见的企业家错误
Part II Pattern-Breaking Actions: Unconventional Tactics to Make Breakthroughs Real
8 Before You Cross the Rubicon: The Implementation Stress Test
9 Savoring Surprises: How Early Customers Will Lead You to the Hidden Gems
10 Co-conspirators: Recruiting Your Start-Up Team
11 Your First True Believers: Attracting the Perfect Customers and Investors
12 Launching Your Movement: Overturning the Status Quo
13 Telling Your Story: The Hero Isn't You
14 Be Disagreeable: And Not a Jerk
15 Dancing Elephants: How Corporations Can Be Pattern Breakers
Conclusion: No Limits
Acknowledgments
Index
第二部分 打破模式的行动：实现突破的非常规策略
8 在你跨过卢比孔河之前：实施压力测试
9 品味惊喜：早期客户如何引导你找到隐藏的宝石
10 同谋：招募你的创业团队
11 你的第一批真正信徒：吸引完美的客户和投资者
12 发起你的运动：颠覆现状
13 讲述你的故事：英雄不是你
14 不同意：不要做混蛋
15 跳舞的大象：公司如何成为打破模式的人
结论：没有限制
致谢
索引
Dì èr bùfèn dǎpò móshì de xíngdòng: Shíxiàn túpò dì fēicháng guī cèlüè
8 zài nǐ kuàguò lúbǐ kǒng hé zhīqián: Shíshī yālì cèshì
9 pǐnwèi jīngxǐ: Zǎoqí kèhù rúhé yǐndǎo nǐ zhǎodào yǐncáng de bǎoshí
10 tóngmóu: Zhāomù nǐ de chuàngyè tuánduì
11 nǐ de dì yī pī zhēnzhèng xìntú: Xīyǐn wánměi de kèhù hé tóuzī zhě
12 fāqǐ nǐ de yùndòng: Diānfù xiànzhuàng
13 jiǎngshù nǐ de gùshì: Yīngxióng bùshì nǐ
14 bù tóngyì: Bùyào zuò húndàn
15 tiàowǔ de dà xiàng: Gōngsī rúhé chéngwéi dǎpò móshì de rén
jiélùn: Méiyǒu xiànzhì
zhìxiè
suǒyǐn
INTRODUCTION
What's Luck Got to Do with It?
Humans are expert pattern matchers. Each day greets us with rituals and routines, in how we wake up, ready the kids for school, or wind down after a day's work. Beyond our everyday habits, we also adapt to the collective patterns of our communities, resulting in smoother social inter- actions and a sense of belonging.
In business, "best practices" codify what works best. Execu- tives look for patterns in past data to forecast the future. Managers gauge potential new hires from their previous performance. Pub- lic companies must report their finances according to generally accepted accounting principles.
Pattern matching guides almost all human activity. Neurosci- ence suggests the reason why: our brains are designed for it, to help us find order, predictability, and safety in an otherwise cha- otic world. Drawing from past experiences and knowledge, our minds can process new information more efficiently, streamlining decision making. This ability also helps us bond with others and find our place in the community. It also contributes to academic success, enhanced social reputation, and a longer, richer life.
And that's why so few of us create breakthroughs. Breakthroughs require pattern breaking.
Pattern-breaking founders create something that breaks the mold. Their pattern-breaking ideas boldly challenge us to depart from current habits.
Many of us consider these pattern-breaking ideas impossible or unthinkable at first. Ironically, the experts we respect most are often the least able to see the potential for a break from the past. Often, it is the outsider, unburdened by the past, who becomes the pattern-breaking person behind a pattern-breaking idea.
简介
运气与此有何关系？
人类是模式匹配专家。每天我们都会按照仪式和惯例迎接我们，比如我们如何起床、如何准备送孩子上学，或者一天工作结束后如何放松。除了日常习惯，我们还会适应社区的集体模式，从而实现更顺畅的社交互动和归属感。
在商业领域，“最佳实践”将最有效的方法编纂成法典。高管们会从过去的数据中寻找模式来预测未来。经理们会根据他们之前的表现来评估潜在的新员工。上市公司必须根据普遍接受的会计原则报告其财务状况。
模式匹配指导着几乎所有的人类活动。神经科学解释了其中的原因：我们的大脑就是为此而设计的，它帮助我们在混乱的世界中找到秩序、可预测性和安全性。从过去的经验和知识中汲取经验，我们的大脑可以更有效地处理新信息，从而简化决策过程。 这种能力还能帮助我们与他人建立联系，在社区中找到自己的位置。它还有助于取得学业成功、提高社会声誉，以及延长寿命和丰富生活。
这就是为什么我们中很少有人能创造突破。突破需要打破模式。
打破模式的创始人创造了打破常规的东西。他们的打破模式的想法大胆地挑战我们摆脱当前的习惯。
我们中的许多人一开始都认为这些打破模式的想法是不可能的或不可想象的。具有讽刺意味的是，我们最尊重的专家往往最看不到打破过去的潜力。通常，没有过去负担的局外人会成为打破模式想法背后的打破模式的人。
Consider the breakthrough of human flight.
George Melville, the US Navy's chief engineer, called aviation a "useless dream" in 1901. Two years later, the New York Times published a piece, "Flying Machines Which Do Not Fly," that fore- saw the accomplishment of human flight as something that might be conquered in the very distant future. Here's how the article ended: "The flying machine which will really fly might be evolved by the combined and continuous efforts of mathematicians and mechanicians in from one million to ten million years. .. To the ordinary man, it would seem as if effort might be employed more profitably."
Fortunately, the Wright brothers weren't ordinary. They flew their first plane at Kitty Hawk, North Carolina, sixty-nine days after that Times editorial.
Orville and Wilbur Wright were not formally trained in physics or aeronautics. They owned a bicycle sales and repair shop in Dayton, Ohio. But they exemplified the independent thinking and peculiar mix of life experiences that often lead to a breakthrough. The principles they understood about balancing and steering bicycles significantly contributed to their eventual understanding of flight control.
Despite the experts' staunch belief that human flight was a fantasy, the Wright brothers defied the odds and shattered age-old perceptions. What they lacked in credentials they more than made up for with curiosity, persistent tinkering, analytical observation, practical mechanical skills, and sheer determination.
以人类飞行的突破为例。
1901 年，美国海军首席工程师乔治·梅尔维尔称航空业为“无用的梦想”。两年后，《纽约时报》发表了一篇题为《无法飞行的飞行器》的文章，预言人类飞行的成就可能在遥远的未来被征服。文章的结尾是这样的：“真正能飞起来的飞行器可能要经过数学家和机械师的共同努力，在一百万到一千万年的时间里不断进化。……对普通人来说，这似乎是一种更有回报的努力。”
幸运的是，莱特兄弟并不平凡。在《纽约时报》发表社论 69 天后，他们在北卡罗来纳州的基蒂霍克试飞了第一架飞机。
奥维尔和威尔伯·莱特没有接受过正式的物理或航空学培训。他们在俄亥俄州代顿拥有一家自行车销售和修理店。 但他们体现了独立思考和独特的生活经历，这些往往能带来突破。他们所理解的平衡和操纵自行车的原理极大地促进了他们最终对飞行控制的理解。
尽管专家们坚信人类飞行只是幻想，但莱特兄弟还是不畏困难，打破了古老的观念。他们缺乏资历，但他们用好奇心、坚持不懈的修补、分析观察、实用的机械技能和坚定的决心弥补了这些不足。
Yǐ rénlèi fēixíng dì túpò wéi lì.
1901 Nián, měiguó hǎijūn shǒuxí gōngchéngshī qiáozhì·méi ěr wéi'ěr chēng hángkōng yè wèi “wúyòng de mèngxiǎng”. Liǎng nián hòu,“niǔyuē shíbào” fābiǎole yī piān tí wèi “wúfǎ fēixíng de fēixíngqì” de wénzhāng, yùyán rénlèi fēixíng de chéngjiù kěnéng zài yáoyuǎn de wèilái bèi zhēngfú. Wénzhāng de jiéwěi shì zhèyàng de:“Zhēnzhèng néng fēi qǐlái de fēixíngqì kěnéng yào jīngguò shùxué jiā hé jīxiè shī de gòngtóng nǔlì, zài yībǎi wàn dào yīqiān wàn nián de shíjiān lǐ bùduàn jìnhuà.……Duì pǔtōng rén lái shuō, zhè sìhū shì yī zhǒng gèng yǒu huíbào de nǔlì.”
Xìngyùn de shì, láitè xiōngdì bìng bù píngfán. Zài “niǔyuē shíbào” fābiǎo shèlùn 69 tiānhòu, tāmen zài běi kǎluóláinà zhōu de jī dì huò kè shìfēile dì yī jià fēijī.
Ào wéi'ěr hé wēi ěr bó·láitè méiyǒu jiēshòuguò zhèngshì de wùlǐ huò hángkōng xué péixùn. Tāmen zài éhài'é zhōu dài dùn yǒngyǒu yījiā zìxíngchē xiāoshòu hé xiūlǐ diàn. Dàn tāmen tǐxiànle dúlì sīkǎo hé dútè de shēnghuó jīnglì, zhèxiē wǎngwǎng néng dài lái túpò. Tāmen suǒ lǐjiě de pínghéng hé cāozòng zìxíngchē de yuánlǐ jí dàdì cùjìnle tāmen zuìzhōng duì fēixíng kòngzhì de lǐjiě.
Jǐnguǎn zhuānjiāmen jiānxìn rénlèi fēixíng zhǐshì huànxiǎng, dàn láitè xiōngdì háishì bù wèi kùnnán, dǎpòle gǔlǎo de guānniàn. Tāmen quēfá zīlì, dàn tāmen yòng hàoqí xīn, jiānchí bùxiè de xiūbǔ, fēnxī guānchá, shíyòng de jīxiè jìnéng hé jiāndìng de juéxīn míbǔle zhèxiē bùzú.
George Bernard Shaw captured their spirit in his play Man and Superman:
The reasonable man adapts himself to the world: the unreasonable one persists in trying to adapt the world to himself. Therefore, all progress depends on the unreasonable man.
Shaw grasped an essential truth: Those who thrive within the current rules ("reasonable" people) are not the ones who steer us to new horizons. Breakthrough progress comes from the "unreasonable"- those who won't fit the mold, who see a different world and bend it to their will-the Pattern Breakers.
My job is to back unreasonable people who have unreason- able ideas, long before the rest of the world believes in them. For the past two decades at the venture capital firm Floodgate, I've invested in pattern-breaking founders and their pattern-breaking start-ups at the very beginning of their journeys.
Today, Floodgate is known as a pioneer and leader in the niche world of seed investing. I cofounded Floodgate in 2005 and helped define seed investing as a new category in venture capital. Unlike traditional investing, seed investing often involves backing just a couple of founders with an idea or possibly an early prototype with virtually no customers or historical financial information.
Our venture team has been fortunate to be the first investors in and to work at the earliest stages with some of the most dynamic breakthrough start-ups of the last two decades: X/Twitter, Twitch, Okta, Lyft, Rappi, and many others that have become household names or critical to the operations of major corporations. (Sadly, I've passed on more than a few breakthrough companies, too. I'll discuss that a bit later.)
As seed investors, we have a very specific risk profile. We typ- ically lose all our money in most of our investments, pinning our hopes on the occasional massive payoff when a start-up is wildly successful.
Investing into a start-up isn't like investing on Wall Street, where you can buy or sell at any time. Once we invest in an early-stage company, we stick with it until it is acquired by a larger company or it goes public on a stock exchange. Each investment journey can take several years, and there's no off-ramp in the interim.
Due to these factors, seed investing is deeply personal to me. I often say I invest in people I'd gladly get into trouble with because trouble happens just about every single time. I pride myself on being more than just a financier. I'm a co-conspirator with ambitious founders in their rebellions against the status quo.
萧伯纳在他的戏剧《人与超人》中捕捉到了他们的精神：
理性的人使自己适应世界，不理性的人则坚持试图让世界适应自己。因此，所有的进步都依赖于不理性的人。
萧伯纳抓住了一个基本真理：那些在现有规则中茁壮成长的人（“理性”人）并不是引导我们走向新视野的人。突破性的进步来自“不理性的人”——那些不愿意适应模式的人，他们看到了一个不同的世界并按照自己的意愿改变它——打破模式的人。
我的工作是支持那些有不合理想法的不理性的人，远在世界其他人相信他们之前。过去二十年，我在风险投资公司 Floodgate 投资了打破模式的创始人和他们打破模式的初创企业，这些企业才刚刚起步。
如今，Floodgate 被誉为种子投资这一细分领域的先驱和领导者。 2005 年，我与他人共同创办了 Floodgate，并帮助将种子投资定义为风险投资的一个新类别。与传统投资不同，种子投资通常只涉及支持几位创始人，他们有想法或可能只是早期原型，几乎没有客户或历史财务信息。
我们的风投团队很幸运，成为过去二十年中最具活力的突破性初创公司的首批投资者，并在早期阶段与这些公司合作：X/Twitter、Twitch、Okta、Lyft、Rappi 以及许多其他已成为家喻户晓或对大型公司运营至关重要的公司。（遗憾的是，我也错过了不少突破性公司。我稍后会讨论这个问题。）
作为种子投资者，我们的风险状况非常特殊。我们通常会在大多数投资中损失所有资金，寄希望于初创公司大获成功时偶尔获得巨额回报。
投资初创公司不像在华尔街投资，你可以随时买入或卖出。 一旦我们投资了一家早期公司，我们就会坚持下去，直到它被一家大公司收购或在证券交易所上市。每次投资之旅都可能需要几年时间，而且在此期间没有退出通道。
由于这些因素，种子投资对我来说非常私人。我经常说我投资那些我很乐意与之共患难的人，因为几乎每次都会有麻烦。我为自己不仅仅是一名金融家而感到自豪。我是雄心勃勃的创始人反抗现状的同谋。
Xiāobónà zài tā de xìjù “rén yǔ chāorén” zhōng bǔzhuō dàole tāmen de jīngshén:
Lǐxìng de rén shǐ zìjǐ shìyìng shìjiè, bù lǐxìng de rén zé jiānchí shìtú ràng shìjiè shìyìng zìjǐ. Yīncǐ, suǒyǒu de jìnbù dōu yīlài yú bù lǐxìng de rén.
Xiāobónà zhuā zhùle yīgè jīběn zhēnlǐ: Nàxiē zài xiàn yǒu guīzé zhōng zhuózhuàng chéngzhǎng de rén (“lǐxìng” rén) bìng bùshì yǐndǎo wǒmen zǒuxiàng xīn shìyě de rén. Túpò xìng de jìnbù láizì “bù lǐxìng de rén”——nàxiē bù yuànyì shìyìng móshì de rén, tāmen kàn dàole yīgè bùtóng de shìjiè bìng ànzhào zìjǐ de yìyuàn gǎibiàn tā——dǎpò móshì de rén.
Wǒ de gōngzuò shì zhīchí nàxiē yǒu bù hélǐ xiǎngfǎ de bù lǐxìng de rén, yuǎn zài shìjiè qítārén xiāngxìn tāmen zhīqián. Guòqù èrshí nián, wǒ zài fēngxiǎn tóuzī gōngsī Floodgate tóuzīle dǎpò móshì de chuàngshǐ rén hé tāmen dǎpò móshì de chūchuàng qǐyè, zhèxiē qǐyè cái gānggāng qǐbù.
Rújīn,Floodgate bèi yù wèi zhǒngzǐ tóuzī zhè yī xì fēn lǐngyù de xiānqū hé lǐngdǎo zhě. 2005 Nián, wǒ yǔ tā rén gòngtóng chuàngbànle Floodgate, bìng bāngzhù jiāng zhǒngzǐ tóuzī dìngyì wèi fēngxiǎn tóuzī de yīgè xīn lèibié. Yǔ chuántǒng tóuzī bùtóng, zhǒngzǐ tóuzī tōngcháng zhǐ shèjí zhīchí jǐ wèi chuàngshǐ rén, tāmen yǒu xiǎngfǎ huò kěnéng zhǐshì zǎoqí yuánxíng, jīhū méiyǒu kèhù huò lìshǐ cáiwù xìnxī.
Wǒmen de fēng tóu tuánduì hěn xìngyùn, chéngwéi guòqù èrshí nián zhōng zuì jù huólì dì túpò xìng chūchuàng gōngsī de shǒu pī tóuzī zhě, bìng zài zǎoqí jiēduàn yǔ zhèxiē gōngsī hézuò:X/Twitter,Twitch,Okta,Lyft,Rappi yǐjí xǔduō qítā yǐ chéngwéi jiāyùhùxiǎo huò duì dàxíng gōngsī yùnyíng zhì guān zhòngyào de gōngsī.(Yíhàn de shì, wǒ yě cuò guò liǎo bù shǎo túpò xìng gōngsī. Wǒ shāo hòu huì tǎolùn zhège wèntí.)
Zuòwéi zhǒngzǐ tóuzī zhě, wǒmen de fēngxiǎn zhuàngkuàng fēicháng tèshū. Wǒmen tōngcháng huì zài dà duōshù tóuzī zhōng sǔnshī suǒyǒu zījīn, jì xīwàng yú chūchuàng gōngsī dà huò chénggōng shí ǒu'ěr huòdé jù'é huíbào.
Tóuzī chūchuàng gōngsī bù xiàng zài huá'ěrjiē tóuzī, nǐ kěyǐ suíshí mǎi rù huò mài chū. Yīdàn wǒmen tóuzīle yījiā zǎoqí gōngsī, wǒmen jiù huì jiānchí xiàqù, zhídào tā bèi yījiā dà gōngsī shōugòu huò zài zhèngquàn jiāoyì suǒ shàngshì. Měi cì tóuzī zhī lǚ dōu kěnéng xūyào jǐ nián shíjiān, érqiě zài cǐ qíjiān méiyǒu tuìchū tōngdào.
Yóuyú zhèxiē yīnsù, zhǒngzǐ tóuzī duì wǒ lái shuō fēicháng sīrén. Wǒ jīngcháng shuō wǒ tóuzī nàxiē wǒ hěn lèyì yǔ zhī gòng huànnàn de rén, yīnwèi jīhū měi cì dūhuì yǒu máfan. Wǒ wèi zìjǐ bùjǐn jǐn shì yī míng jīnróng jiā ér gǎndào zìháo. Wǒ shì xióngxīn bóbó de chuàngshǐ rén fǎnkàng xiànzhuàng de tóngmóu.
The breakthrough start-ups we have backed were all led by pattern-breaking founders who challenged conventional wisdom and convinced others to embrace a radically different future. They achieved this through a combination of pattern-breaking ideas that were radically different and pattern-breaking actions that persuaded the rest of the world to think, feel, and act differently.
Pattern-breaking ideas offer something radically different from anything that's come before. At first, these ideas can seem crazy. Why would anyone stay in a stranger's home? Yet Airbnb proved they would. Why would someone catch a ride in a strang- er's car? Uber and Lyft, having dispatched tens of billions of pas- senger rides, answered that question. How could 140-character "tweets" ignite the most explosive media revolution of the last two decades? X/Twitter, with its simplicity, transformed the media and the public square.
Despite the initial strangeness of these transformative companies, their very uniqueness gave them enormous strength. They eluded the comparison trap, for there was often no precedent to measure them against. Instead of besting their rivals, they stood alone.
Throughout this book, you'll see why better ideas aren't enough. Remarkably different ideas are essential for achieving a massive impact. While pattern-breaking founders envision a dif- ferent future through their ideas, that's not all there is to it. They must pull others along with them to make their ideas real. Asking the world to leave the known for an unsure tomorrow is a provoc- ative act. It's unsettling to most. So, these founders don't win by blending into the crowd or following conventional approaches.
Instead, they persuade others to change their habits through their pattern-breaking actions. They draw a stark dichotomy between the world as it exists and the world as it could be, urging us to embark on a journey to a different future with them.
Because their ideas and actions are so radical, pattern breakers often face the fierce resistance of a world reluctant to change. Often, their closest advisors and family try to bring them back into the mainstream, critics scorn them, incumbent corporations try to defeat them, and sometimes governments even try to outlaw them. But they forge ahead, driven by a purpose far beyond conventional acceptance.
我们支持的突破性初创公司均由打破常规的创始人领导，他们挑战传统智慧，说服他人拥抱一个完全不同的未来。他们通过结合完全不同的打破常规的想法和说服世界其他人以不同的方式思考、感受和行动的打破常规的行动实现了这一目标。
打破常规的想法提供了与以往完全不同的东西。起初，这些想法似乎很疯狂。为什么有人会住在陌生人的家里？然而 Airbnb 证明了他们会这样做。为什么有人会搭陌生人的车？Uber 和 Lyft 已经运送了数百亿乘客，回答了这个问题。140 个字符的“推文”如何引发过去二十年最具爆炸性的媒体革命？X/Twitter 以其简单性改变了媒体和公共广场。
尽管这些变革性公司最初很奇怪，但它们的独特性赋予了它们巨大的力量。 他们避开了比较陷阱，因为通常没有先例可以衡量他们。他们没有打败对手，而是孤军奋战。
通过这本书，你将明白为什么更好的想法是不够的。截然不同的想法对于实现巨大影响至关重要。虽然打破常规的创始人通过他们的想法设想了一个不同的未来，但这并不是全部。他们必须拉着其他人一起把他们的想法变成现实。要求世界离开已知的世界，走向一个不确定的未来是一种挑衅的行为。这让大多数人感到不安。所以，这些创始人不是通过融入人群或遵循传统方法来取胜的。
相反，他们通过打破常规的行动说服其他人改变习惯。他们在现有的世界和可能的世界之间划出一条鲜明的二分法，敦促我们和他们一起踏上通往不同未来的旅程。
由于他们的想法和行动过于激进，打破常规的人经常会面临一个不愿改变的世界的强烈抵制。他们最亲密的顾问和家人经常试图让他们回归主流，批评者鄙视他们，现任公司试图打败他们，有时政府甚至试图取缔他们。但他们仍勇往直前，他们的目标远远超出了传统的接受范围。
Wǒmen zhīchí dì túpò xìng chūchuàng gōngsī jūn yóu dǎpò chángguī de chuàngshǐ rén lǐngdǎo, tāmen tiǎozhàn chuántǒng zhìhuì, shuōfú tārén yǒngbào yīgè wánquánbùtóng de wèilái. Tāmen tōngguò jiéhé wánquán bùtóng de dǎpò chángguī de xiǎngfǎ hé shuōfú shìjiè qítā rén yǐ bùtóng de fāngshì sīkǎo, gǎnshòu hé xíngdòng de dǎpò chángguī de xíngdòng shíxiànle zhè yī mùbiāo.
Dǎpò chángguī de xiǎngfǎ tígōngle yǔ yǐwǎng wánquán bùtóng de dōngxī. Qǐchū, zhèxiē xiǎngfǎ sìhū hěn fēngkuáng. Wèishéme yǒurén huì zhù zài mòshēng rén de jiālǐ? Rán'ér Airbnb zhèngmíngliǎo tāmen huì zhèyàng zuò. Wèishéme yǒurén huì dā mòshēng rén de chē?Uber hé Lyft yǐjīng yùnsòngle shù bǎi yì chéngkè, huídále zhège wèntí.140 Gè zìfú de “tuī wén” rúhé yǐnfā guòqù èrshí nián zuì jù bàozhàxìng de méitǐ gémìng?X/Twitter yǐ qí jiǎndān xìng gǎibiànle méitǐ hé gōnggòng guǎngchǎng.
Jǐnguǎn zhèxiē biàngé xìng gōngsī zuìchū hěn qíguài, dàn tāmen de dútè xìng fùyǔle tāmen jùdà de lìliàng. Tāmen bì kāile bǐjiào xiànjǐng, yīnwèi tōngcháng méiyǒu xiānlì kěyǐ héngliáng tāmen. Tāmen méiyǒu dǎbài duìshǒu, ér shì gūjūn fènzhàn.
Tōngguò zhè běn shū, nǐ jiāng míngbái wèishéme gèng hǎo de xiǎngfǎ shì bùgòu de. Jiérán bùtóng de xiǎngfǎ duìyú shíxiàn jùdà yǐngxiǎng zhì guān zhòngyào. Suīrán dǎpò chángguī de chuàngshǐ rén tōngguò tāmen de xiǎngfǎ shèxiǎngle yīgè bùtóng de wèilái, dàn zhè bìng bùshì quán bù. Tāmen bìxū lāzhe qítā rén yīqǐ bǎ tāmen de xiǎngfǎ biàn chéng xiànshí. Yāoqiú shìjiè líkāi yǐ zhī de shìjiè, zǒuxiàng yīgè bù quèdìng de wèilái shì yī zhǒng tiǎoxìn de xíngwéi. Zhè ràng dà duōshù rén gǎndào bù'ān. Suǒyǐ, zhèxiē chuàngshǐ rén bùshì tōngguò róngrù rénqún huò zūnxún chuántǒng fāngfǎ lái qǔshèng de.
Xiāngfǎn, tāmen tōngguò dǎpò chángguī de xíngdòng shuōfú qítā rén gǎibiàn xíguàn. Tāmen zài xiàn yǒu de shìjiè hàn kěnéng de shìjiè zhī jiān huà chū yītiáo xiānmíng de èrfēn fǎ, dūncù wǒmen hé tāmen yīqǐ tà shàng tōng wǎng bùtóng wèilái de lǚchéng.
Yóuyú tāmen de xiǎngfǎ hé xíngdòng guòyú jījìn, dǎpò chángguī de rén jīngcháng huì miànlín yīgè bù yuàn gǎibiàn de shìjiè de qiángliè dǐzhì. Tāmen zuì qīnmì de gùwèn hé jiārén jīngcháng shìtú ràng tāmen huíguī zhǔliú, pīpíng zhě bǐshì tāmen, xiànrèn gōngsī shìtú dǎbài tāmen, yǒushí zhèngfǔ shènzhì shìtú qǔdì tāmen. Dàn tāmen réng yǒngwǎngzhíqián, tāmen de mùbiāo yuǎn yuǎn chāochūle chuántǒng de jiēshòu fànwéi.
JUST A LUCKY FOOL?
In August 2014, I was feeling particularly uneasy, and not because of an embarrassing investment failure. It was because of an unex- pected investment windfall. I had backed the start-up that became Twitch from its beginnings seven years earlier. Since then, Twitch has attracted tens of millions of users. Then Amazon acquired it for close to $1 billion.
But the investment success felt like a forward fumble. The original idea I'd backed many years earlier was very different from the product Amazon had acquired: it was originally an internet real- ity show called Justin.tv that featured cofounder Justin Kan live- streaming his daily activities 24/7. After a few years and a lot of major course corrections, Justin.tv launched Twitch as a separate entity. Twitch's popularity had skyrocketed, but I hadn't fully understood why.
I checked in with Spencer, my fourteen-year-old son and resident video game and YouTube expert. "What's the big deal about Twitch?" I asked.
He looked confused. "I thought you invested in Twitch?!"
Spencer gave me a quick tour of live channels from streamers with names like Captainsparklez, PhantomLord, and Nightblue3. Over a hundred thousand people were simultaneously watching someone play League of Legends-more spectators than you'd see in stadiums for major sporting events. Another streamer owned the world record for "speed runs" through Super Mario 64.
It blew my mind. These streamers weren't movie icons or rock stars, at least not how I understood it. They were ordinary peo- ple playing video games. Yet some had massive followings any celebrity would envy. Why would anyone - let alone millions of people - tune in to watch some random person play a video game? It challenged my beliefs about entertainment and fame.
But that wasn't all that unsettled me. That same week, a start-up founder I would have pegged for near-certain success shuttered his company. Again, I didn't fully understand why. He'd raised money from some of Silicon Valley's sharpest investors and had excelled at all the things he was supposed to-customer development, finding a big market, building a great team, and defining a high-performance culture. His start-up could've been a case study of what to do. Except it failed. After years of sacrifice, waves of layoffs, and waning morale, investors and supporters lost faith. He lived the agony of watching his start-up slowly die.
And this kind of event-a start-up that seemed to do the right things yet still failed-wasn't isolated. I saw it happen again and again.
I had calculated that more than 80 percent of the most impactful start-ups I'd worked with had pivoted. That is, they'd moved in a new direction that differed-often quite radically - from their starting point.
Twitter wasn't Twitter when I invested in 2005. It was a pod- casting company called Odeo. But when Apple made podcasting free in iTunes, Odeo was in deep trouble. Twitter, called twttr at the time, was started by Jack Dorsey, Evan Williams, and Biz Stone as they frantically searched for a new direction.
I invested in Twitch when it was a live internet reality show called Justin.tv. Four years later, it transformed into the streaming platform we now recognize as Twitch.
Chegg was a classified site for colleges when we provided seed funding in 2006. When it went public in November 2013, it provided a range of educational services totally unrelated to its original service.
Lyft was called Zimride when we seed-funded it in 2010. It was originally designed for carpooling at colleges and companies. In 2012, it shifted its focus to become the ridesharing service we recognize today.
The founders of Zimride executed extremely well in their shift. But you might be surprised to learn that many founders of breakthrough start-ups didn't necessarily plan or execute better than the founders whose ventures never took off.
Take X/Twitter, for example. The founders differed on the vision. They kept changing who was in charge. The "Fail Whale" frequently appeared due to site overload, which happened almost every day.
There was chaos during the early days of Twitch as well. Emmett Shear, the CEO, has been open about the management dysfunction back then, marked by unclear roles, cultural challenges, competing visions, and the struggle to make decisions at pivotal moments.
Since pattern-breaking start-ups often shifted their initial ideas, and great execution didn't always guarantee success, a deeper concern came to mind: maybe the success or failure of the start- ups I'd chosen was due to dumb luck.
The Lucky Fool is a key character in Nassim Taleb's Fooled by Randomness (one of my favorite books). The lucky fool succeeds mostly due to luck, but in hindsight he ascribes the success to something else - not to good fortune, but to skill or strategy or genius or work ethic or some other factor that he tailors to fit the facts.
Was I being fooled by randomness? Were the breakout founders I worked with lucky fools? Was I just a lucky fool riding their coattails? And what about the founders who didn't achieve breakthroughs? Were they just unlucky?
只是个幸运的傻瓜？
2014 年 8 月，我感到特别不安，不是因为令人尴尬的投资失败。而是因为一笔意外的投资横财。七年前，我从一开始就支持了后来成为 Twitch 的初创企业。从那时起，Twitch 已经吸引了数千万用户。后来，亚马逊以近 10 亿美元收购了它。
但投资成功感觉像是一次向前的失误。我多年前支持的最初想法与亚马逊收购的产品截然不同：它最初是一个名为 Justin.tv 的互联网真人秀节目，联合创始人 Justin Kan 全天候直播他的日常活动。经过几年和多次重大的路线修正后，Justin.tv 推出了 Twitch 作为独立实体。Twitch 的受欢迎程度飙升，但我当时并不完全明白为什么。
我向 Spencer 咨询了一下，他是我十四岁的儿子，也是电子游戏和 YouTube 的常驻专家。“Twitch 有什么大不了的？”我问道。
他看起来很困惑。“我以为你投资了 Twitch？！”
Spencer 带我快速浏览了 Captainsparklez、PhantomLord 和 Nightblue3 等主播的直播频道。超过十万人同时观看某人玩英雄联盟——比大型体育赛事体育场的观众还多。另一位主播拥有“超级马里奥 64”“快速通关”的世界纪录。
这让我大吃一惊。这些主播不是电影偶像或摇滚明星，至少不是我所理解的。他们只是玩电子游戏的普通人。然而，有些人拥有任何名人都会羡慕的大量粉丝。为什么有人——更不用说数百万人——会收看某个随机的人玩电子游戏？这挑战了我对娱乐和名望的信念。
但让我不安的还不止这些。就在同一周，一家我认为几乎肯定会成功的初创公司创始人关闭了他的公司。同样，我也不完全明白为什么。他从硅谷一些最精明的投资者那里筹集了资金，并在他应该做的所有事情上都表现出色——客户开发、寻找大市场、组建一支优秀的团队以及定义高绩效文化。他的初创公司本可以成为一个案例研究。但它失败了。经过多年的牺牲、一波波的裁员和士气低落，投资者和支持者失去了信心。他痛苦地看着他的初创公司慢慢死去。
这种事件——一家似乎做了正确的事情但仍然失败的初创公司——并不是孤立的。我看到它一次又一次地发生。
我计算过，在我合作过的最具影响力的初创公司中，超过 80% 都已经转型了。 也就是说，他们已经朝着与起点截然不同（通常相当彻底）的新方向发展。
2005 年我投资 Twitter 时，它还不是 Twitter。它是一家名为 Odeo 的播客公司。但当苹果在 iTunes 中免费提供播客时，Odeo 陷入了困境。Twitter 当时名为 twttr，由杰克·多西、埃文·威廉姆斯和比兹·斯通在疯狂寻找新方向时创立。
我投资 Twitch 时，它还是一个名为 Justin.tv 的互联网真人秀。四年后，它变成了我们现在所熟知的流媒体平台 Twitch。
2006 年我们为 Chegg 提供种子资金时，它还是一个大学分类网站。2013 年 11 月上市时，它提供了一系列与其原始服务完全无关的教育服务。
2010 年我们为 Lyft 提供种子资金时，它被称为 Zimride。它最初是为大学和公司拼车而设计的。 2012 年，该公司将重点转向成为我们今天所熟知的拼车服务。
Zimride 的创始人在转型中表现得非常出色。但你可能会惊讶地发现，许多突破性初创公司的创始人并不一定比那些创业从未成功的创始人规划或执行得更好。
以 X/Twitter 为例。创始人对愿景的看法不同。他们不断更换负责人。由于网站超载，经常出现“失败鲸”，这种情况几乎每天都在发生。
Twitch 早期也曾陷入混乱。首席执行官 Emmett Shear 公开表示，当时的管理失调，其特点是角色不明确、文化挑战、愿景相互竞争以及在关键时刻难以做出决策。
由于打破常规的初创公司经常改变最初的想法，而出色的执行并不总能保证成功，因此我产生了一个更深层次的担忧：也许我选择的初创公司的成功或失败是由于运气不好。
幸运傻瓜是纳西姆·塔勒布的《随机致富的傻瓜》（我最喜欢的书之一）中的一个关键人物。幸运傻瓜的成功主要归功于运气，但事后他把成功归因于其他东西——不是好运，而是技能、策略、天才、职业道德或其他一些他根据事实量身定制的因素。
我被随机性愚弄了吗？和我共事的那些突破性的创始人是幸运傻瓜吗？我只是一个幸运的傻瓜，搭上了他们的便车？那些没有取得突破的创始人呢？他们只是运气不好吗？
Zhǐshì gè xìngyùn de shǎguā?
2014 Nián 8 yuè, wǒ gǎndào tèbié bù'ān, bùshì yīnwèi lìng rén gāngà de tóuzī shībài. Ér shì yīn wéi yī bǐ yìwài de tóuzī hèngcái. Qī nián qián, wǒ cóng yī kāishǐ jiù zhīchíle hòulái chéngwéi Twitch de chūchuàng qǐyè. Cóng nà shí qǐ,Twitch yǐjīng xīyǐnle shù qiān wàn yònghù. Hòulái, yàmǎxùn yǐjìn 10 yì měiyuán shōugòule tā.
Dàn tóuzī chénggōng gǎnjué xiàng shì yīcì xiàng qián de shīwù. Wǒ duōnián qián zhīchí de zuìchū xiǎngfǎ yǔ yàmǎxùn shōugòu de chǎnpǐn jiérán bùtóng: Tā zuìchū shì yīgè míng wèi Justin.Tv de hùliánwǎng zhēnrén xiù jiémù, liánhé chuàngshǐ rén Justin Kan quántiānhòu zhíbò tā de rìcháng huódòng. Jīngguò jǐ nián hé duō cì zhòngdà de lùxiàn xiūzhèng hòu,Justin.Tv tuīchūle Twitch zuòwéi dúlì shítǐ.Twitch de shòu huānyíng chéngdù biāoshēng, dàn wǒ dāngshí bìng bù wánquán míngbái wèishéme.
Wǒ xiàng Spencer zīxúnle yīxià, tā shì wǒ shísì suì de érzi, yěshì diànzǐ yóuxì hé YouTube de cháng zhù zhuānjiā.“Twitch yǒu shé me dàbùliǎo de?” Wǒ wèn dào.
Tā kàn qǐlái hěn kùnhuò.“Wǒ yǐwéi nǐ tóuzīle Twitch?!”
Spencer dài wǒ kuàisù liúlǎnle Captainsparklez,PhantomLord hé Nightblue3 děng zhǔ bò de zhíbò píndào. Chāoguò shí wàn rén tóngshí guānkàn mǒu rén wán yīngxióng liánméng——bǐ dàxíng tǐyù sàishì tǐyùchǎng de guānzhòng hái duō. Lìng yī wèi zhǔbō yǒngyǒu “chāojí mǎlǐ ào 64”“kuàisù tōngguān” de shìjiè jìlù.
Zhè ràng wǒ dàchīyījīng. Zhèxiē zhǔbō bùshì diànyǐng ǒuxiàng huò yáogǔn míngxīng, zhì shào bùshì wǒ suǒ lǐjiě de. Tāmen zhǐshì wán diànzǐ yóuxì de pǔtōng rén. Rán'ér, yǒuxiē rén yǒngyǒu rènhé míngrén dūhuì xiànmù de dàliàng fěnsī. Wèishéme yǒurén——gèng bùyòng shuō shù bǎi wàn rén——huì shōukàn mǒu gè suíjī de rén wán diànzǐ yóuxì? Zhè tiǎozhànle wǒ duì yúlè he míngwàng de xìnniàn.
Dàn ràng wǒ bù'ān dì hái bùzhǐ zhèxiē. Jiù zài tóngyī zhōu, yījiā wǒ rènwéi jīhū kěndìng huì chénggōng de chūchuàng gōngsī chuàngshǐ rén guānbìle tā de gōngsī. Tóngyàng, wǒ yě bù wánquán míngbái wèishéme. Tā cóng guīgǔ yīxiē zuì jīngmíng de tóuzī zhě nàlǐ chóujíle zījīn, bìng zài tā yīnggāi zuò de suǒyǒu shìqíng shàng dū biǎoxiàn chūsè——kèhù kāifā, xúnzhǎo dà shìchǎng, zǔjiàn yī zhī yōuxiù de tuánduì yǐjí dìngyì gāo jīxiào wénhuà. Tā de chūchuàng gōngsī běn kěyǐ chéngwéi yīgè ànlì yánjiū. Dàn tā shībàile. Jīngguò duōnián de xīshēng, yī bō bō de cáiyuán hé shìqì dīluò, tóuzī zhě hé zhīchí zhě shīqùle xìnxīn. Tā tòngkǔ de kànzhe tā de chūchuàng gōngsī màn man sǐqù.
Zhè zhǒng shìjiàn——yījiā sìhū zuòle zhèngquè de shìqíng dàn réngrán shībài de chūchuàng gōngsī——bìng bùshì gūlì de. Wǒ kàn dào tā yīcì yòu yīcì de fāshēng.
Wǒ jìsuànguò, zài wǒ hézuòguò de zuì jù yǐngxiǎng lì de chūchuàng gōngsī zhōng, chāoguò 80% dōu yǐjīng zhuǎnxíngle. Yě jiùshì shuō, tāmen yǐjīng cháozhe yǔ qǐdiǎn jiérán bùtóng (tōngcháng xiāngdāng chèdǐ) de xīn fāngxiàng fāzhǎn.
2005 Nián wǒ tóuzī Twitter shí, tā hái bùshì Twitter. Tā shì yījiā míng wèi Odeo de bòkè gōngsī. Dàn dāng píngguǒ zài iTunes zhōng miǎnfèi tígōng bòkè shí,Odeo xiànrùle kùnjìng.Twitter dāngshí míng wèi twttr, yóu jiékè·duō xī, āi wén·wēilián mǔ sī hé bǐ zī·sī tōng zài fēngkuáng xúnzhǎo xīn fāngxiàng shí chuànglì.
Wǒ tóuzī Twitch shí, tā háishì yīgè míng wèi Justin.Tv de hùliánwǎng zhēnrén xiù. Sì nián hòu, tā biàn chéngle wǒmen xiànzài suǒ shúzhī de liú méitǐ píngtái Twitch.
2006 Nián wǒmen wèi Chegg tígōng zhǒngzǐ zījīn shí, tā háishì yīgè dàxué fēnlèi wǎngzhàn.2013 Nián 11 yuè shàngshì shí, tā tígōngle yī xìliè yǔqí yuánshǐ fúwù wánquán wúguān de jiàoyù fúwù.
2010 Nián wǒmen wèi Lyft tígōng zhǒngzǐ zījīn shí, tā bèi chēng wèi Zimride. Tā zuìchū shì wéi dàxué hé gōngsī pīnchē ér shèjì de. 2012 Nián, gāi gōngsī jiāng zhòngdiǎn zhuǎnxiàng chéngwéi wǒmen jīntiān suǒ shúzhī de pīnchē fúwù.
Zimride de chuàngshǐ rén zài zhuǎnxíng zhōng biǎoxiàn dé fēicháng chūsè. Dàn nǐ kěnéng huì jīngyà de fāxiàn, xǔduō túpò xìng chūchuàng gōngsī de chuàngshǐ rén bìng bù yīdìng bǐ nàxiē chuàngyè cóng wèi chénggōng de chuàngshǐ rén guīhuà huò zhíxíng dé gèng hǎo.
Yǐ X/Twitter wéi lì. Chuàngshǐ rén duì yuànjǐng de kànfǎ bùtóng. Tāmen bùduàn gēnghuàn fùzé rén. Yóuyú wǎngzhàn chāozài, jīngcháng chūxiàn “shībài jīng”, zhè zhǒng qíngkuàng jīhū měitiān dū zài fāshēng.
Twitch zǎoqí yě céng xiànrù hǔnluàn. Shǒuxí zhíxíng guān Emmett Shear gōngkāi biǎoshì, dāngshí de guǎnlǐ shītiáo, qí tèdiǎn shì juésè bù míngquè, wénhuà tiǎozhàn, yuànjǐng xiānghù jìngzhēng yǐjí zài guānjiàn shíkè nányǐ zuò chū juécè.
Yóuyú dǎpò chángguī de chūchuàng gōngsī jīngcháng gǎibiàn zuìchū de xiǎngfǎ, ér chūsè de zhí háng bìng bù zǒng néng bǎozhèng chénggōng, yīncǐ wǒ chǎnshēngle yīgè gēngshēn céngcì de dānyōu: Yěxǔ wǒ xuǎnzé de chūchuàng gōngsī de chénggōng huò shībài shì yóuyú yùnqì bù hǎo.
Xìngyùn shǎguā shì nàxī mǔ·tǎ lēi bù de “suíjī zhìfù de shǎguā”(wǒ zuì xǐhuān de shū zhī yī) zhōng de yīgè guānjiàn rénwù. Xìngyùn shǎguā de chénggōng zhǔyào guīgōng yú yùnqì, dàn shìhòu tā bǎ chénggōng guī yīn yú qítā dōngxī——bùshì hǎo yùn, ér shì jìnéng, cèlüè, tiāncái, zhíyè dàodé huò qítā yīxiē tā gēnjù shìshí liáng shēn dìngzhì de yīnsù.
Wǒ bèi suíjī xìng yúnòngle ma? Hé wǒ gòngshì dì nàxiē túpò xìng de chuàngshǐ rén shì xìngyùn shǎguā ma? Wǒ zhǐshì yīgè xìngyùn de shǎguā, dā shàngle tāmen de biàn chē? Nàxiē méiyǒu qǔdé túpò dì chuàngshǐ rén ne? Tāmen zhǐshì yùnqì bù hǎo ma?
MY INNER ANORAK
That's when my inner anorak kicked in. "Anorak" is British slang for a socially inept person with an obsessive - compulsive hobby of tracking arcane subjects the rest of the population would usually find boring. The term comes from train spotters, who frequently wore anorak-style jackets. They would stand outside at train stations for extended periods, regardless of the weather, jotting down the numbers of passing trains.
I'm an incurable anorak. I became obsessed with uncovering the reasons behind why some start-ups achieved extraordinary results while others, despite seemingly following the right steps, struggled or achieved only modest success.
Figuring this out was tough. Start-ups are random and complex by nature. No two start-ups are totally alike. Luckily, I had good relationships with lots of founders. Most would speak honestly with me when I asked. Some had reached greatness, others had suffered failure, and a few had experienced both. I chose my questions carefully, seeking objective truths in their stories.
We are all fooled by randomness in one way or another. Past events always seem less random in hindsight. We can easily under- estimate the role of luck in our success and instead overestimate the impact of our abilities or strategies, especially when we've been extremely successful. Taleb believes that many successful people are lucky fools-at the right place at the right time rather than the skilled geniuses we imagine ourselves to be. Recounting our successes, we combine random events into a pattern that describes a coherent story in which our skill makes us the central figures of our success narrative. By overlooking the role of chance, we miss deeper truths and the opportunity to learn from them.
At the same time, I sensed that there was more to these outcomes than pure chance that there could be an explanation for why start-up A had a better chance of achieving outlier success than start-up B. I wasn't looking for a magic formula, but I wanted a better understanding of the factors for success. I had to know. I kept digging.
I surveyed our database to pull the successful outliers from the thousands of founders we'd taken meetings with. If we'd rejected the opportunity to invest in an outlier, I reviewed the research work we'd done, the rejection email we'd sent to the founder, and the emails and internal correspondence between me and the rest of the team at Floodgate.
I focused a lot of effort on understanding how founders came up with their ideas. I tried to avoid open-ended questions like, "Why do you think this product took off?" because these questions can invite explanations with hindsight bias. Instead, I asked questions like, "What motivated you to start building when you
did? Did you set out deliberately to build a start-up, or did the idea visit you in a flash of inspiration? What else were you doing at the time? Who were you spending time with to test ideas?"
I asked every founder, "What changed from your first product idea to what it became? What caused you to change the course? When was the first moment you started to see things working?"
I searched for unexpected surprises, both positive and negative, and I am eager to decipher their role in shaping success or failure.
I also spent a lot of time trying to learn how founders located their first believers their early users as well as the needs of those users and why they had decided to abandon their existing patterns of behavior to embrace something totally new.
All this work was aimed at answering a single question: What was the most important factor that contributed to breakthrough success?
Some days, I felt like a lost wanderer, with clarity always slightly out of reach. Still, my research began changing the way I thought about and talked about start-ups. I shared these experiences with students when I made guest appearances at the entrepreneurship course taught by my coauthor, Peter Ziebelman, at the Stanford Graduate School of Business.
Peter said my perspective was strikingly different from that of other guest lecturers. Most speakers emphasized entrepreneurial best practices. They explained how to identify attractive market sectors, how to interview customers to detect their key pain points, and how to create or build a minimum viable product with a defined business model that solves the problem.
In theory, following these best practices seemed logical. Yet looking closer at the founders who tried them, I saw a familiar tale. Despite their meticulous efforts and strong commitment, many failed to achieve their desired impact. The reason? They poured their energies into ideas that appeared promising on the surface but lacked pattern-breaking potential. They didn't have a way to recognize which ideas were worth pursuing in the first place.
Spending more time with Peter's classes, my attention shifted toward the mindset required to birth a pattern-breaking idea. As we pushed our class discussion in this direction, the students' excitement grew. They said it had changed how they thought about testing the power behind their existing ideas and what it might take to build a breakthrough start-up. Peter and I met regularly to wrestle with the questions I was exploring. Slowly, answers began to take shape.
The usual frameworks for understanding why start-ups succeed or fail aren't wrong. They are helpful tools that assist founders in preventing avoidable mistakes. They help a founder adopt proven patterns to be better at the job. People were teaching entrepreneurship like they might teach math or physics or English-like there was a formula or recipe that, when followed correctly, would lead to a right answer.
My research revealed a counter-intuitive truth: Founders don't create outlier start-ups by mastering established recipes or best practices. Instead, they embrace pattern-breaking as a core part of their job description and start-up journey. Being extraordinarily different is a key aspect of the breakthrough founder's job description. It's a different type of mindset, one that demands a talent for pattern breaking, an aptitude for breaking the mold.
Interacting with students, we saw the skill, drive, and smarts we look for in founders. Yet if you evaluated their start-up ideas and strategies, they were chasing conventional ideas unworthy of their talents and seemed headed for mediocre success at best.
They were dutifully following the best practices, but it felt like a paint-by-numbers exercise rather than an approach to mastering the art of breakthrough start-ups.
It's even sadder to see a founder try to maintain momentum in a start-up years after realizing it won't make a difference. Driven not by enthusiasm but by obligation, they bear a profound responsibility to family, friends, investors, and employees. Feeling trapped, they waste many of their prime years. This is the real tragedy.
Peter recommended that we give form to the ideas we were developing, a framework to capture the thoughts more precisely. We could offer something new in the conversation of how break-through start-ups are created.
This book is written in my voice, but you'll find Peter's influence in every line.
我的内心狂野
这时，我的内心狂野开始发挥作用。“Anorak”是英国俚语，指的是社交能力差的人，他们有一种强迫症般的爱好，喜欢追踪其他人通常会觉得无聊的神秘事物。这个词来自火车观察员，他们经常穿着风衣式夹克。他们会在火车站外面站很长时间，不管天气如何，记下经过的火车数量。
我是一个无可救药的狂野狂野者。我痴迷于揭示为什么一些初创公司取得了非凡的成果，而其他一些初创公司尽管似乎遵循了正确的步骤，却举步维艰或只取得了有限的成功。
弄清楚这一点很难。初创公司本质上是随机而复杂的。没有两家初创公司是完全相同的。幸运的是，我与许多创始人都保持着良好的关系。当我问起时，大多数人都会诚实地告诉我。有些人取得了伟大的成就，有些人遭遇了失败，还有一些人两者兼而有之。 我谨慎地选择问题，从故事中寻找客观事实。
我们都以这样或那样的方式被随机性所愚弄。事后看来，过去的事件总是不那么随机。我们很容易低估运气在成功中的作用，反而高估我们的能力或策略的影响，尤其是当我们非常成功的时候。塔勒布认为，许多成功人士都是幸运的傻瓜——他们在正确的时间出现在正确的地点，而不是我们想象中的技术天才。回顾我们的成功，我们将随机事件组合成一个模式，描述一个连贯的故事，其中我们的技能使我们成为成功故事的中心人物。通过忽视机会的作用，我们错过了更深层次的真理和从中学习的机会。
与此同时，我感觉到这些结果不仅仅是纯粹的偶然，还有更多的原因可以解释为什么初创公司 A 比初创公司 B 更有可能取得非凡的成功。我不是在寻找神奇的公式，而是想更好地理解成功的因素。我必须知道。 我不断挖掘。
我调查了我们的数据库，从我们开会的数千名创始人中找出成功的异类。如果我们拒绝了投资异类的机会，我会回顾我们所做的研究工作、我们发给创始人的拒绝邮件，以及我和 Floodgate 团队其他成员之间的电子邮件和内部通信。
我花了很多精力去了解创始人是如何想出他们的想法的。我尽量避免开放式问题，比如“你认为这个产品为什么会成功？”因为这些问题可能会导致事后偏见。相反，我会问这样的问题：“是什么促使你开始创业的？你是故意开始创业的，还是灵感一闪而过？当时你还在做什么？你和谁一起花时间测试想法？”
我问过每一位创始人：“从你的第一个产品想法到现在，发生了什么变化？是什么促使你改变方向？你第一次看到事情奏效是什么时候？”
我寻找意想不到的惊喜，无论是积极的还是消极的，我渴望解读它们在塑造成功或失败方面所起的作用。
我还花了很多时间试图了解创始人如何找到他们的第一批信徒、他们的早期用户以及这些用户的需求，以及他们为什么决定放弃现有的行为模式来接受全新的东西。
所有这些工作都是为了回答一个问题：促成突破性成功的最重要因素是什么？
有些日子，我觉得自己像个迷路的流浪者，总是有点难以理解。尽管如此，我的研究开始改变我对初创企业的看法和谈论方式。当我在斯坦福商学院由我的合著者 Peter Ziebelman 教授的创业课程上做客时，我与学生们分享了这些经历。
彼得说我的观点与其他客座讲师截然不同。 大多数演讲者都强调了创业最佳实践。他们解释了如何识别有吸引力的市场领域，如何采访客户以发现他们的主要痛点，以及如何创建或构建具有解决问题的明确商业模式的最小可行产品。
从理论上讲，遵循这些最佳实践似乎合乎逻辑。然而，仔细观察那些尝试过这些做法的创始人，我看到了一个熟悉的故事。尽管他们付出了细致的努力和坚定的承诺，但许多人未能实现他们预期的影响。原因是什么？他们把精力投入到表面上看起来很有希望但缺乏突破模式潜力的想法上。他们没有办法识别哪些想法值得追求。
在 Peter 的课堂上花了更多时间后，我的注意力转向了催生突破性想法所需的心态。随着我们朝着这个方向推进课堂讨论，学生们的兴奋感也与日俱增。他们说，这改变了他们测试现有想法背后的力量以及建立突破性初创企业可能需要什么的想法。Peter 和我定期会面，探讨我正在探索的问题。慢慢地，答案开始成形。
理解初创企业成功或失败原因的常用框架并没有错。它们是帮助创始人避免可避免的错误的有用工具。它们帮助创始人采用经过验证的模式来更好地完成工作。人们教授创业就像教授数学、物理或英语一样——好像有一个公式或秘诀，如果正确遵循，就会得到正确的答案。
我的研究揭示了一个违反直觉的事实：创始人不会通过掌握既定的秘诀或最佳实践来创建出类拔萃的初创企业。相反，他们将打破模式作为其工作描述和创业之旅的核心部分。 与众不同是突破性创始人工作描述中的一个关键方面。这是一种不同的思维方式，需要打破模式的才能，打破陈规的能力。
与学生互动时，我们看到了创始人所具备的技能、动力和智慧。然而，如果你评估他们的创业想法和策略，你会发现他们追逐的是不配他们才能的传统想法，似乎最多只能取得平庸的成功。
他们尽职尽责地遵循最佳实践，但这感觉就像是按部就班的练习，而不是掌握突破性创业艺术的方法。
更令人难过的是，创始人在意识到创业不会有什么不同之后，还试图在创业公司保持势头。他们不是出于热情，而是出于义务，对家人、朋友、投资者和员工负有重大责任。他们感到被困住了，浪费了许多黄金岁月。这才是真正的悲剧。
彼得建议我们把正在开发的想法具体化，建立一个框架来更准确地捕捉想法。我们可以在如何创建突破性初创企业的对话中提供一些新的东西。
这本书是用我的口吻写的，但你会发现每一行都受到了彼得的影响。
Wǒ de nèixīn kuáng yě
zhè shí, wǒ de nèixīn kuáng yě kāishǐ fāhuī zuòyòng.“Anorak” shì yīngguó lǐyǔ, zhǐ de shì shèjiāo nénglì chà de rén, tāmen yǒuyī zhǒng qiǎngpò zhèng bān de àihào, xǐhuān zhuīzōng qítā rén tōngcháng huì juédé wúliáo de shénmì shìwù. Zhège cí láizì huǒchē guāncháyuán, tāmen jīngcháng chuānzhuó fēngyī shì jiákè. Tāmen huì zài huǒchē zhàn wàimiàn zhàn hěn cháng shíjiān, bùguǎn tiānqì rúhé, jì xià jīngguò de huǒchē shùliàng.
Wǒ shì yīgè wú kě jiù yào de kuáng yě kuáng yě zhě. Wǒ chīmí yú jiēshì wèishéme yīxiē chūchuàng gōngsī qǔdéle fēifán de chéngguǒ, ér qítā yīxiē chūchuàng gōngsī jǐnguǎn sìhū zūnxúnle zhèngquè de bùzhòu, què jǔbùwéijiān huò zhǐ qǔdéle yǒuxiàn de chénggōng.
Nòng qīngchǔ zhè yīdiǎn hěn nán. Chūchuàng gōngsī běnzhí shàng shì suíjī ér fùzá de. Méiyǒu liǎng jiā chūchuàng gōngsī shì wánquán xiāngtóng de. Xìngyùn de shì, wǒ yǔ xǔduō chuàngshǐ rén dōu bǎochízhe liánghǎo de guānxì. Dāng wǒ wèn qǐ shí, dà duōshù rén dūhuì chéngshí dì gàosù wǒ. Yǒuxiē rén qǔdéle wěidà de chéngjiù, yǒuxiē rén zāoyùle shībài, hái yǒu yīxiē rén liǎng zhě jiān ér yǒu zhī. Wǒ jǐnshèn de xuǎnzé wèntí, cóng gùshì zhōng xúnzhǎo kèguān shìshí.
Wǒmen dōu yǐ zhèyàng huò nàyàng de fāngshì bèi suíjī xìng suǒ yúnòng. Shìhòu kàn lái, guòqù de shìjiàn zǒng shì bù nàme suíjī. Wǒmen hěn róngyì dīgū yùnqì zài chénggōng zhōng de zuòyòng, fǎn'ér gāo gū wǒmen de nénglì huò cèlüè de yǐngxiǎng, yóuqí shì dāng wǒmen fēicháng chénggōng de shíhòu. Tǎ lēi bù rènwéi, xǔduō chénggōng rénshì dōu shì xìngyùn de shǎguā——tāmen zài zhèngquè de shíjiān chūxiànzài zhèngquè dì dìdiǎn, ér bùshì wǒmen xiǎngxiàng zhōng de jìshù tiāncái. Huígù wǒmen de chénggōng, wǒmen jiāng suíjī shìjiàn zǔhé chéng yīgè móshì, miáoshù yīgè liánguàn de gùshì, qízhōng wǒmen de jìnéng shǐ wǒmen chéngwéi chénggōng gùshì de zhōngxīn rénwù. Tōngguò hūshì jīhuì de zuòyòng, wǒmen cuòguòle gēngshēn céngcì de zhēnlǐ hé cóngzhōng xuéxí de jīhuì.
Yǔ cǐ tóngshí, wǒ gǎnjué dào zhèxiē jiéguǒ bùjǐn jǐn shì chúncuì de ǒurán, hái yǒu gèng duō de yuányīn kěyǐ jiěshì wèishéme chūchuàng gōngsī A bǐ chūchuàng gōngsī B gèng yǒu kěnéng qǔdé fēifán de chénggōng. Wǒ bùshì zài xúnzhǎo shénqí de gōngshì, ér shì xiǎng gèng hǎo dì lǐjiě chénggōng de yīnsù. Wǒ bìxū zhīdào. Wǒ bùduàn wājué.
Wǒ diàochále wǒmen de shùjùkù, cóng wǒmen kāihuì de shù qiān míng chuàngshǐ rén zhōng zhǎo chū chénggōng de yìlèi. Rúguǒ wǒmen jùjuéle tóuzī yìlèi de jīhuì, wǒ huì huígù wǒmen suǒ zuò de yán jiù gōngzuò, wǒmen fā gěi chuàngshǐ rén de jùjué yóujiàn, yǐjí wǒ hé Floodgate tuánduì qítā chéngyuán zhī jiān de diànzǐ yóujiàn hé nèibù tōngxìn.
Wǒ huāle hěnduō jīnglì qù liǎojiě chuàngshǐ rén shì rúhé xiǎng chū tāmen de xiǎngfǎ de. Wǒ jǐnliàng bìmiǎn kāifàng shì wèntí, bǐrú “nǐ rènwéi zhège chǎnpǐn wèishéme huì chénggōng?” Yīnwèi zhèxiē wèntí kěnéng huì dǎozhì shìhòu piānjiàn. Xiāngfǎn, wǒ huì wèn zhèyàng de wèntí:“Shì shénme cùshǐ nǐ kāishǐ chuàngyè de? Nǐ shì gùyì kāishǐ chuàngyè de, háishì línggǎn yī shǎn érguò? Dāngshí nǐ hái zài zuò shénme? Nǐ hé shéi yīqǐ huā shíjiān cèshì xiǎngfǎ?”
Wǒ wènguò měi yī wèi chuàngshǐ rén:“Cóng nǐ de dì yīgè chǎnpǐn xiǎngfǎ dào xiàn zài, fāshēngle shénme biànhuà? Shì shénme cùshǐ nǐ gǎibiàn fāngxiàng? Nǐ dì yī cì kàn dào shìqíng zòuxiào shì shénme shíhòu?”
Wǒ xúnzhǎo yì xiǎngbùdào de jīngxǐ, wúlùn shì jījí de háishì xiāojí de, wǒ kěwàng jiědú tāmen zài sùzào chénggōng huò shībài fāngmiàn suǒ qǐ de zuòyòng.
Wǒ hái huāle hěnduō shíjiān shìtú liǎojiě chuàngshǐ rén rúhé zhǎodào tāmen de dì yī pī xìntú, tāmen de zǎoqí yònghù yǐjí zhèxiē yònghù de xūqiú, yǐjí tāmen wèishéme juédìng fàngqì xiàn yǒu de xíngwéi móshì lái jiēshòu quánxīn de dōngxī.
Suǒyǒu zhèxiē gōngzuò dōu shì wèile huídá yīgè wèntí: Cùchéng túpò xìng chénggōng de zuì zhòngyào yīnsù shì shénme?
Yǒuxiē rìzi, wǒ juédé zìjǐ xiàng gè mílù de liúlàng zhě, zǒng shì yǒudiǎn nányǐ lǐjiě. Jǐnguǎn rúcǐ, wǒ de yánjiū kāishǐ gǎibiàn wǒ duì chūchuàng qǐyè de kànfǎ hé tánlùn fāngshì. Dāng wǒ zài sītǎnfú shāng xuéyuàn yóu wǒ de hé zhùzhě Peter Ziebelman jiàoshòu de chuàngyè kèchéng shàng zuòkè shí, wǒ yǔ xuéshēngmen fēnxiǎngle zhèxiē jīnglì.
Bǐdé shuō wǒ de guāndiǎn yǔ qítā kèzuò jiǎngshī jiérán bùtóng. Dà duōshù yǎnjiǎng zhě dōu qiángdiàole chuàngyè zuì jiā shíjiàn. Tāmen jiě shì liǎo rúhé shìbié yǒu xīyǐn lì de shìchǎng lǐngyù, rúhé cǎifǎng kèhù yǐ fāxiàn tāmen de zhǔyào tòngdiǎn, yǐjí rúhé chuàngjiàn huò gòujiàn jùyǒu jiějué wèntí de míngquè shāngyè móshì de zuìxiǎo kěxíng chǎnpǐn.
Cóng lǐlùn shàng jiǎng, zūnxún zhèxiē zuì jiā shíjiàn sìhū héhū luójí. Rán'ér, zǐxì guānchá nàxiē chángshìguò zhèxiē zuòfǎ de chuàngshǐ rén, wǒ kàn dàole yī gè shúxī de gùshì. Jǐnguǎn tāmen fùchūle xìzhì de nǔlì hé jiāndìng de chéngnuò, dàn xǔduō rén wèi néng shíxiàn tāmen yùqí de yǐngxiǎng. Yuányīn shì shénme? Tāmen bǎ jīnglì tóurù dào biǎomiàn shàng kàn qǐlái hěn yǒu xīwàng dàn quēfá túpò móshì qiánlì de xiǎngfǎ shàng. Tāmen méiyǒu bànfǎ shìbié nǎxiē xiǎngfǎ zhídé zhuīqiú.
Zài Peter de kètáng shàng huāle gèng duō shíjiān hòu, wǒ de zhùyì lì zhuǎnxiàngle cuīshēng túpò xìng xiǎngfǎ suǒ xū de xīntài. Suízhe wǒmen cháozhe zhège fāngxiàng tuījìn kètáng tǎolùn, xuéshēngmen de xīngfèn gǎn yě yǔrìjùzēng. Tāmen shuō, zhè gǎibiànle tāmen cèshì xiàn yǒu xiǎngfǎ bèihòu de lìliàng yǐjí jiànlì túpò xìng chūchuàng qǐyè kěnéng xūyào shénme de xiǎngfǎ.Peter hé wǒ dìngqí huìmiàn, tàntǎo wǒ zhèngzài tànsuǒ de wèntí. Màn man de, dá'àn kāishǐ chéngxíng.
Lǐjiě chūchuàng qǐyè chénggōng huò shībài yuányīn de chángyòng kuàngjià bìng méiyǒu cuò. Tāmen shì bāngzhù chuàngshǐ rén bìmiǎn kě bìmiǎn de cuòwù de yǒuyòng gōngjù. Tāmen bāngzhù chuàngshǐ rén cǎiyòng jīngguò yànzhèng de móshì lái gèng hǎo de wánchénggōngzuò. Rénmen jiàoshòu chuàngyè jiù xiàng jiàoshòu shùxué, wùlǐ huò yīngyǔ yīyàng——hǎoxiàng yǒu yīgè gōngshì huò mìjué, rúguǒ zhèngquè zūnxún, jiù huì dédào zhèngquè de dá'àn.
Wǒ de yánjiū jiēshìle yīgè wéifǎn zhíjué de shìshí: Chuàngshǐ rén bù huì tōngguò zhǎngwò jìdìng de mìjué huò zuì jiā shíjiàn lái chuàngjiàn chūlèibácuì de chūchuàng qǐyè. Xiāngfǎn, tāmen jiāng dǎpò móshì zuòwéi qí gōngzuò miáoshù hé chuàngyè zhī lǚ de héxīn bùfèn. Yǔ zhòng bùtóng shìtúpò xìng chuàngshǐ rén gōngzuò miáoshù zhōng de yīgè guānjiàn fāngmiàn. Zhè shì yī zhǒng bùtóng de sīwéi fāngshì, xūyào dǎpò móshì de cáinéng, dǎpò chénguī de nénglì.
Yǔ xuéshēng hùdòng shí, wǒmen kàn dàole chuàngshǐ rén suǒ jùbèi de jìnéng, dònglì hé zhìhuì. Rán'ér, rúguǒ nǐ pínggū tāmen de chuàngyè xiǎngfǎ hé cèlüè, nǐ huì fāxiàn tāmen zhuīzhú de shì bùpèi tāmen cáinéng de chuántǒng xiǎngfǎ, sìhū zuìduō zhǐ néng qǔdé píngyōng de chéng gōng.
Tāmen jìnzhí jìnzé de zūnxún zuì jiā shíjiàn, dàn zhè gǎnjué jiù xiàng shì ànbùjiùbān de liànxí, ér bùshì zhǎngwò túpò xìng chuàngyè yìshù de fāngfǎ.
Gèng lìng rén nánguò de shì, chuàngshǐ rén zài yìshí dào chuàngyè bù huì yǒu shé me bùtóng zhīhòu, hái shì tú zài chuàngyè gōngsī bǎochí shìtóu. Tāmen bùshì chū yú rèqíng, ér shì chū yú yìwù, duì jiārén, péngyǒu, tóuzī zhě hé yuángōng fù yǒu zhòngdà zérèn. Tāmen gǎndào bèi kùn zhùle, làngfèile xǔduō huángjīn suìyuè. Zhè cái shì zhēnzhèng de bēijù.
Bǐdé jiànyì wǒmen bǎ zhèngzài kāifā de xiǎngfǎ jùtǐ huà, jiànlì yīgè kuàngjià lái gèng zhǔnquè de bǔzhuō xiǎngfǎ. Wǒmen kěyǐ zài rúhé chuàngjiàn túpò xìng chūchuàng qǐyè de duìhuà zhōng tígōng yīxiē xīn de dōngxī.
Zhè běn shū shì yòng wǒ de kǒuwěn xiě de, dàn nǐ huì fāxiàn měi yīxíng dū shòudàole bǐdé de yǐngxiǎng.
ANOTHER PATTERN IN DISGUISE?
Some of you must be thinking that if we analyze characteristics of breakthrough start-ups, aren't we looking for patterns? And isn't the book trying to propose a pattern for achieving breakthroughs? Isn't that a contradiction?
This is a thoughtful question, and to answer it, I'll concentrate on two key distinctions.
First off, I'm not saying that pattern matching is inherently "bad" or breaking patterns is always "good." They are distinct mindsets, each with benefits and limitations.
Pattern matching is a crucial cognitive skill. It helps us process information efficiently, make decisions, learn, avoid danger, and adapt. It's vital for everyday functioning.
However, these mental shortcuts can also make us miss signifi- cant anomalies right in front of us.
Consider a Harvard experiment where students were asked to count basketball passes among players in white shirts. Amidst this, a person in a gorilla suit walked into the frame, lingering for nine sec- onds while jumping up and waving its arms. Would you have noticed the gorilla in the room? This question provokes a confident "Of course!" from most. Despite this, half the students didn't notice the gorilla. This oversight, highlighted in the book The Invisible Gorilla, reveals our perceptual blind spots. It's a clear example of how we overlook the obvious around us.
To achieve a breakthrough, you'll need a different mindset to see what you and others would normally overlook-a pattern-breaking mindset. Discovering breakthrough ideas is challenging, not because they're hidden secrets, but because we're conditioned to notice the familiar, while overlooking what might be.
This leads to the second point: many people look for formulas for success. But the pattern-breaking mindset can't provide a fixed rec- ipe. There's no set of steps guaranteeing a breakthrough; by nature, breakthroughs are undiscovered. Therefore, the concepts in Pattern Breakers are not patterns to emulate for guaranteed success. Rather, they are strategies to nurture a mindset that breaks free from con- ventional thinking and actions. This is different from most business methodologies you'll encounter.
另一种伪装的模式？
你们中的一些人肯定在想，如果我们分析突破性初创企业的特征，我们不是在寻找模式吗？这本书不是试图提出实现突破的模式吗？这不是矛盾吗？
这是一个深思熟虑的问题，为了回答它，我将集中讨论两个关键区别。
首先，我并不是说模式匹配本质上是“坏的”，也不是说打破模式总是“好的”。它们是不同的思维方式，每种方式都有好处和局限性。
模式匹配是一项至关重要的认知技能。它帮助我们有效地处理信息、做出决定、学习、避免危险和适应。它对日常运作至关重要。
然而，这些思维捷径也可能让我们错过眼前的重大异常。
考虑一下哈佛大学的一项实验，学生们被要求计算穿白衬衫的球员的篮球传球次数。在这期间，一个穿着大猩猩服装的人走进画面，在跳起并挥舞手臂的同时停留了九秒钟。 你会注意到房间里的大猩猩吗？这个问题让大多数人都自信地回答“当然！”。尽管如此，一半的学生并没有注意到大猩猩。《隐形大猩猩》一书中强调了这一疏忽，揭示了我们的感知盲点。这是一个清晰的例子，说明了我们如何忽视身边显而易见的事物。
要取得突破，你需要一种不同的心态来发现你和其他人通常会忽略的东西——一种打破模式的心态。发现突破性的想法很有挑战性，不是因为它们是隐藏的秘密，而是因为我们习惯于注意熟悉的事物而忽略可能发生的事情。
这引出了第二点：许多人都在寻找成功的公式。但打破模式的心态不能提供固定的配方。没有一套步骤可以保证突破；从本质上讲，突破是未被发现的。因此，《模式破坏者》中的概念并不是可以模仿的保证成功的模式。 相反，它们是培养打破传统思维和行为的心态的策略。这与你遇到的大多数商业方法不同。Lìng yī zhǒng wèizhuāng de móshì?
Nǐmen zhōng de yīxiē rén kěndìng zài xiǎng, rúguǒ wǒmen fēnxī túpò xìng chūchuàng qǐyè de tèzhēng, wǒmen bùshì zài xúnzhǎo móshì ma? Zhè běn shū bùshì shìtú tíchū shíxiàn túpò dì móshì ma? Zhè bùshì máodùn ma?
Zhè shì yīgè shēnsīshúlǜ de wèntí, wèile huídá tā, wǒ jiāng jízhōng tǎolùn liǎng gè guānjiàn qūbié.
Shǒuxiān, wǒ bìng bùshì shuō móshì pǐpèi běnzhí shàng shì “huài de”, yě bùshì shuō dǎpò móshì zǒng shì “hǎo de”. Tāmen shì bùtóng de sīwéi fāngshì, měi zhǒng fāngshì dōu yǒu hǎochù hé júxiàn xìng.
Móshì pǐpèi shì yīxiàng zhì guān zhòngyào de rèn zhī jìnéng. Tā bāngzhù wǒmen yǒuxiào de chǔlǐ xìnxī, zuò chū juédìng, xuéxí, bìmiǎn wéixiǎn hé shìyìng. Tā duì rìcháng yùnzuò zhì guān zhòngyào.
Rán'ér, zhèxiē sīwéi jiéjìng yě kěnéng ràng wǒmen cuòguò yǎnqián de zhòngdà yìcháng.
Kǎolǜ yī xià hāfó dàxué de yī xiàng shíyàn, xuéshēngmen bèi yāoqiú jìsuàn chuān bái chènshān de qiúyuán de lánqiú chuán qiú cìshù. Zài zhè qíjiān, yīgè chuānzhuó dà xīngxīng fúzhuāng de rén zǒu jìn huàmiàn, zài tiào qǐ bìng huīwǔ shǒubì de tóngshí tíngliúle jiǔ miǎo zhōng. Nǐ huì zhùyì dào fángjiān lǐ de dà xīngxīng ma? Zhège wèntí ràng dà duōshù rén dōu zìxìn de huídá “dāngrán!”. Jǐnguǎn rúcǐ, yībàn de xuéshēng bìng méiyǒu zhùyì dào dà xīngxīng.“Yǐnxíng dà xīngxīng” yī shū zhōng qiángdiàole zhè yī shūhū, jiēshìle wǒmen de gǎnzhī mángdiǎn. Zhè shì yīgè qīngxī de lìzi, shuōmíngliǎo wǒmen rúhé hūshì shēnbiān xiǎn'éryìjiàn de shìwù.
Yào qǔdé túpò, nǐ xūyào yī zhǒng bùtóng de xīntài lái fāxiàn nǐ hé qítā rén tōngcháng huì hūlüè de dōngxī——yī zhǒng dǎpò móshì de xīntài. Fāxiàn túpò xìng de xiǎngfǎ hěn yǒu tiǎozhàn xìng, bùshì yīnwèi tāmen shì yǐncáng de mìmì, ér shì yīnwèi wǒmen xíguàn yú zhùyì shúxī de shìwù ér hūlüè kěnéng fāshēng de shìqíng.
Zhè yǐnchūle dì èr diǎn: Xǔduō rén dōu zài xúnzhǎo chénggōng de gōngshì. Dàn dǎpò móshì de xīntài bùnéng tígōng gùdìng de pèifāng. Méiyǒu yī tào bùzhòu kěyǐ bǎozhèng túpò; cóng běnzhí shàng jiǎng, túpò shì wèi pī fà xiàn de. Yīncǐ,“móshì pòhuài zhě” zhōng de gàiniàn bìng bùshì kěyǐ mófǎng de bǎozhèng chénggōng de móshì. Xiāngfǎn, tāmen shì péiyǎng dǎpò chuántǒng sīwéi hé xíngwéi de xīntài de cèlüè. Zhè yǔ nǐ yù dào de dà duōshù shāngyè fāngfǎ bùtóng.
THE PATH TO PATTERN BREAKER
Pattern Breakers will challenge you to rethink why only a select few start-ups transcend the ordinary and achieve the extraordinary.
We first look at how pattern-breaking founders think differently: What gives their ideas the power to dismantle the status quo instead of simply enhancing what already exists? Then we turn to how pattern breakers act differently: How do they draw the right co-conspirators into their orbit, ignite movements to spread their ideas, and ultimately redefine how people think, feel, and act? Our aim is to distill these insights into practical, actionable steps you can apply directly to your own efforts.
Chapter 1 raises the central questions in Pattern Breakers: What nonobvious forces power ideas that upend the status quo? How do pattern-breaking founders succeed at spreading these ideas to other people? When do pattern-breaking principles contradict many of the best practices for start-ups?
In Chapter 2, we show how inflections are the underlying force that helps start-ups spark radical change. You will also see, in Chapter 3, how timing is crucially important and how to turn it into a source of advantage. We'll explore examples of start-up ideas that seemed good but failed because they lacked strong enough inflections to fuel their success.
Having powerful forces behind your start-up idea is necessary, but outlier success demands more. Chapters 4 and 5 describe how your idea also must contain an insight. This is a vital element often overlooked by even the best entrepreneurs. Insights provide uniqueness that helps you escape competition. We'll show why a start-up insight needs to be non-consensus and right if it seeks to break patterns.
In Chapters 6 and 7, we emphasize why "living in the future" is the likeliest path to the most powerful insights. We explain the difference between living in the present and living in the future
and lay out actionable steps to propel yourself into a future-focused setting. We show you ways to test your insights with potential early believers in Chapters 8 and 9. You'll see why it's vital to seek feedback from those in sync with your core vision while steering clear of people more likely to cling to current norms. We will also help you figure out whether your idea has attracted the necessary enthusiasm among the right circle of early believers to justify the commitment and sacrifices that build start-up demands. In several chapters, we provide stress tests to challenge whether your concepts truly have the capacity to overturn established patterns.
Next, we move from the concept of pattern-breaking ideas to the decisive pattern-breaking actions necessary to turn those ideas into successes in the real world. In Chapters 10 and 11, we show you how to enlist your co-conspirators-the first true believers who form the heart of your early start-up team, early customers, and initial investors. In Chapter 12, you find your first true believers and start your movement. Chapter 13 describes the importance of effective storytelling to energize your movement. In Chapter 14, we show that for those intent on breaking new ground, being disagreeable is an asset, not a flaw, and how this differs from just being a jerk.
We emphasize in Chapter 15 that pattern-breaking is not just for start-ups; larger companies can apply these concepts to their new products and lines of business. We spotlight companies that have mastered this.
I focus on a handful of start-ups in depth - Lyft, Okta, X/ Twitter, Twitch, and Airbnb-while briefly touching on others. I chose these start-ups for in-depth consideration because I saw them in their rawest form, in the thick of their formative chaos, while they were still grappling with the unknown, well before
they achieved the milestones that would propel them to become the household names we know today. Peter and I recognize that we're describing these successful founders and their start-ups as pattern breakers after the fact of their successes. These examples offer not only good stories but also glimpses into the world of those who defy convention. Your path will be different since every pattern-breaking start-up is a unique journey in its own right.
Not everyone views new technology and its creators with hope; skeptics and critics abound. We agree that it is important to see the whole-the excesses in addition to the successes of technology. Yet our demands for such honesty must acknowledge that advances in technology are not just a backdrop to our history; they are a protagonist in it. The mastery of fire, the dawn of agricultural practices, the rise of cities: these aren't just footnotes in our story; they form the very center of human progress. Absent these leaps, our daily lives would be as they were in old times, limited to focusing on our immediate survival needs.
The future doesn't happen to us. It happens because of us. It comes to life when someone dares to supplant old ways with a different way. You will get the most out of these concepts if you embrace the viewpoint of the "unreasonable" person championed by George Bernard Shaw - the mindset of a pattern breaker. Doing so may go against your initial instincts and what your parents, mentors, and well-wishers taught you. That's the magic of it.
打破模式之路
《打破模式》将挑战您重新思考为什么只有少数几家初创公司能够超越平凡，实现非凡。
我们首先看看打破模式的创始人如何以不同的方式思考：是什么让他们的想法有能力打破现状，而不是简单地增强已经存在的东西？然后我们来看看打破模式的人如何采取不同的行动：他们如何吸引合适的同谋者进入他们的轨道，点燃运动来传播他们的想法，并最终重新定义人们的想法、感受和行为？我们的目标是将这些见解提炼成切实可行的步骤，您可以直接应用于自己的努力。
第 1 章提出了《打破模式》中的核心问题：哪些不明显的力量推动了颠覆现状的想法？打破模式的创始人如何成功地将这些想法传播给其他人？打破模式的原则何时与初创公司的许多最佳实践相矛盾？
在第 2 章中，我们展示了转折是如何成为帮助初创企业引发根本性变革的潜在力量。在第 3 章中，您还将看到时机至关重要，以及如何将其转化为优势来源。我们将探讨一些初创企业想法的例子，这些想法看似不错，但却因为缺乏足够强大的转折来推动其成功而失败。
拥有强大的力量是您的初创企业想法的必要条件，但异常成功则需要更多。第 4 章和第 5 章描述了您的想法也必须包含洞察力。这是一个经常被最优秀的企业家忽视的重要元素。洞察力提供的独特性可以帮助您摆脱竞争。我们将说明为什么初创企业洞察力需要非共识且正确，如果它试图打破模式的话。
在第 6 章和第 7 章中，我们强调了为什么“生活在未来”是获得最强大洞察力的最可能途径。我们解释了活在当下和生活在未来的区别，并列出了可行的步骤来推动您进入以未来为中心的环境。 在第 8 章和第 9 章中，我们将向您展示如何与潜在的早期信徒一起测试您的见解。您将明白为什么寻求与您的核心愿景同步的人的反馈至关重要，同时避开更可能坚持当前规范的人。我们还将帮助您弄清楚您的想法是否在合适的早期信徒圈子中引起了必要的热情，以证明建立初创企业需求的承诺和牺牲是合理的。在几章中，我们提供压力测试来挑战您的概念是否真正有能力推翻既定模式。
接下来，我们从打破模式的想法的概念转向将这些想法转化为现实世界中的成功所必需的决定性打破模式的行动。在第 10 章和第 11 章中，我们将向您展示如何招募您的同谋 - 第一批真正的信徒，他们构成了您的早期创业团队、早期客户和初始投资者的核心。在第 12 章中，您将找到您的第一批真正的信徒并开始您的运动。第 13 章描述了有效讲故事对激发您的运动的重要性。 在第 14 章中，我们展示了对于那些一心想开辟新天地的人来说，不讨人喜欢是一种资产，而不是缺陷，以及这与单纯的混蛋有何不同。
我们在第 15 章中强调，打破模式不仅适用于初创公司；大公司可以将这些概念应用于他们的新产品和业务线。我们重点介绍掌握了这一点的公司。
我重点关注了少数几家初创公司——Lyft、Okta、X/Twitter、Twitch 和 Airbnb——同时简要介绍了其他公司。我之所以选择这些初创公司进行深入研究，是因为我看到了它们最原始的状态，它们处于成长的混乱之中，当时它们仍在努力应对未知，远在
它们实现里程碑，推动它们成为我们今天所熟知的家喻户晓的名字之前。彼得和我意识到，我们在这些成功的创始人和他们的初创公司取得成功后才将其描述为打破模式的人。这些例子不仅提供了好故事，还让我们得以一窥那些不遵守传统的人的世界。 您的道路将有所不同，因为每个打破常规的创业公司本身都是一段独特的旅程。
并非所有人都对新技术及其创造者抱有希望；怀疑论者和批评者比比皆是。我们一致认为，看到整体很重要——技术的成功和过度。然而，我们对这种诚实的要求必须承认，技术的进步不仅仅是我们历史的背景；它们是历史的主角。火的掌握、农业实践的兴起、城市的崛起：这些不仅仅是我们故事的注脚；它们构成了人类进步的核心。如果没有这些飞跃，我们的日常生活就会像过去一样，仅限于关注我们眼前的生存需求。
未来不是我们自己创造的，而是我们自己创造的。当有人敢于用不同的方式取代旧的方式时，未来就会出现。如果你接受萧伯纳所倡导的“不讲道理”的人的观点——打破常规的心态，你就能从这些概念中获得最大的收获。这样做可能会违背你的初衷以及你的父母、导师和祝福者教给你的东西。这就是它的魔力所在。
Dǎpò móshì zhī lù
“dǎpò móshì” jiāng tiǎozhàn nín chóngxīn sīkǎo wèishéme zhǐyǒu shǎoshù jǐ jiā chūchuàng gōngsī nénggòu chāoyuè píngfán, shíxiàn fēifán.
Wǒmen shǒuxiān kàn kàn dǎpò móshì de chuàngshǐ rén rúhé yǐ bùtóng de fāngshì sīkǎo: Shì shénme ràng tāmen de xiǎngfǎ yǒu nénglì dǎpò xiànzhuàng, ér bùshì jiǎndān de zēngqiáng yǐjīng cúnzài de dōngxī? Ránhòu wǒmen lái kàn kàn dǎpò móshì de rén rúhé cǎiqǔ bùtóng de xíngdòng: Tāmen rúhé xīyǐn héshì de tóngmóu zhě jìnrù tāmen de guǐdào, diǎnrán yùndòng lái chuánbò tāmen de xiǎngfǎ, bìng zuìzhōng chóngxīn dìngyì rénmen de xiǎngfǎ, gǎnshòu hé xíngwéi? Wǒmen de mùbiāo shì jiāng zhèxiē jiànjiě tíliàn chéng qièshí kěxíng de bùzhòu, nín kěyǐ zhíjiē yìngyòng yú zìjǐ de nǔlì.
Dì 1 zhāng tíchūle “dǎpò móshì” zhōng de héxīn wèntí: Nǎxiē bù míngxiǎn de lìliàng tuīdòngle diānfù xiànzhuàng de xiǎngfǎ? Dǎpò móshì de chuàngshǐ rén rúhé chénggōng de jiāng zhèxiē xiǎngfǎ chuánbò gěi qítā rén? Dǎpò móshì de yuánzé hé shí yǔ chūchuàng gōngsī de xǔduō zuì jiā shíjiàn xiāng máodùn?
Zài dì 2 zhāng zhōng, wǒmen zhǎnshìle zhuǎnzhéshì rúhé chéngwéi bāngzhù chūchuàng qǐyè yǐnfā gēnběn xìng biàngé de qiánzài lìliàng. Zài dì 3 zhāng zhōng, nín hái jiāng kàn dào shíjī zhì guān zhòngyào, yǐjí rúhé jiāng qí zhuǎnhuà wéi yōushì láiyuán. Wǒmen jiāng tàntǎo yīxiē chūchuàng qǐyè xiǎngfǎ de lìzi, zhèxiē xiǎngfǎ kàn shì bùcuò, dàn què yīnwèi quēfá zúgòu qiángdà de zhuǎnzhé lái tuīdòng qí chénggōng ér shībài.
Yǒngyǒu qiángdà de lìliàng shì nín de chūchuàng qǐyè xiǎngfǎ de bìyào tiáojiàn, dàn yìcháng chénggōng zé xūyào gèng duō. Dì 4 zhāng hé dì 5 zhāng miáoshùle nín de xiǎngfǎ yě bìxū bāohán dòngchá lì. Zhè shì yīgè jīngcháng bèi zuì yōuxiù de qǐyè jiā hūshì de zhòngyào yuánsù. Dòngchá lì tígōng de dútè xìng kěyǐ bāngzhù nín bǎituō jìngzhēng. Wǒmen jiāng shuōmíng wèishéme chūchuàng qǐyè dòngchá lì xūyào fēi gòngshì qiě zhèngquè, rúguǒ tā shìtú dǎpò móshì dehuà.
Zài dì 6 zhāng hé dì 7 zhāng zhōng, wǒmen qiángdiàole wèishéme “shēnghuó zài wèilái” shì huòdé zuì qiáng dà dòngchá lì de zuì kěnéng tújìng. Wǒmen jiěshìle huó zài dāngxià hé shēnghuó zài wèilái de qūbié, bìng liè chūle kěxíng de bùzhòu lái tuīdòng nín jìnrù yǐ wèilái wéi zhōngxīn de huánjìng. Zài dì 8 zhāng hé dì 9 zhāng zhōng, wǒmen jiāng xiàng nín zhǎnshì rúhé yǔ qiánzài de zǎoqí xìntú yīqǐ cèshì nín de jiànjiě. Nín jiāng míngbái wèishéme xúnqiú yǔ nín de héxīn yuànjǐng tóngbù de rén de fǎnkuì zhì guān zhòngyào, tóngshí bì kāi gèng kěnéng jiānchí dāngqián guīfàn de rén. Wǒmen hái jiāng bāngzhù nín nòng qīngchǔ nín de xiǎngfǎ shìfǒu zài hé shì de zǎoqí xìntú quānzi zhōng yǐnqǐle bìyào de rèqíng, yǐ zhèngmíng jiànlì chūchuàng qǐyè xūqiú de chéngnuò hé xīshēng shì hélǐ de. Zài jǐ zhāng zhōng, wǒmen tígōng yālì cèshì lái tiǎozhàn nín de gàiniàn shìfǒu zhēnzhèng yǒu nénglì tuīfān jìdìng móshì.
Jiē xiàlái, wǒmen cóng dǎpò móshì de xiǎngfǎ de gàiniàn zhuǎnxiàng jiāng zhèxiē xiǎngfǎ zhuǎnhuà wéi xiànshí shìjiè zhōng de chénggōng suǒ bìxū de juédìngxìng dǎpò móshì de xíngdòng. Zài dì 10 zhāng hé dì 11 zhāng zhōng, wǒmen jiāng xiàng nín zhǎnshì rúhé zhāomù nín de tóngmóu - dì yī pī zhēnzhèng de xìntú, tāmen gòuchéngle nín de zǎoqí chuàngyè tuánduì, zǎoqí kèhù hé chūshǐ tóuzī zhě de héxīn. Zài dì 12 zhāng zhōng, nín jiāng zhǎodào nín de dì yī pī zhēnzhèng de xìntú bìng kāishǐ nín de yùndòng. Dì 13 zhāng miáoshùle yǒuxiào jiǎng gùshì duì jīfā nín de yùndòng de zhòngyào xìng. Zài dì 14 zhāng zhōng, wǒmen zhǎnshìle duìyú nàxiē yīxīn xiǎng kāipì xīntiāndì de rén lái shuō, bù tǎo rén xǐhuān shì yī zhǒng zīchǎn, ér bùshì quēxiàn, yǐjí zhè yǔ dānchún de húndàn yǒu hé bùtóng.
Wǒmen zài dì 15 zhāng zhōng qiángdiào, dǎpò móshì bùjǐn shìyòng yú chūchuàng gōngsī; dà gōngsī kěyǐ jiāng zhèxiē gàiniàn yìngyòng yú tāmen de xīn chǎnpǐn hé yèwù xiàn. Wǒmen zhòngdiǎn jièshào zhǎngwòle zhè yīdiǎn de gōngsī.
Wǒ zhòngdiǎn guānzhùle shǎoshù jǐ jiā chūchuàng gōngsī——Lyft,Okta,X/Twitter,Twitch hé Airbnb——tóngshí jiǎnyào jièshàole qítā gōngsī. Wǒ zhī suǒyǐ xuǎnzé zhèxiē chūchuàng gōngsī jìnxíng shēnrù yánjiū, shì yīnwèi wǒ kàn dàole tāmen zuì yuánshǐ de zhuàngtài, tāmen chǔyú chéngzhǎng de hǔnluàn zhī zhōng, dāngshí tāmen réng zài nǔlì yìngduì wèizhī, yuǎn zài
tāmen shíxiàn lǐchéngbēi, tuīdòng tāmen chéngwéi wǒmen jīntiān suǒ shúzhī de jiāyùhùxiǎo de míngzì zhīqián. Bǐdé hé wǒ yìshí dào, wǒmen zài zhèxiē chénggōng de chuàngshǐ rén hé tāmen de chūchuàng gōngsī qǔdé chénggōng hòu cái jiāng qí miáoshù wèi dǎpò móshì de rén. Zhèxiē lìzi bùjǐn tígōngle hǎo gùshì, hái ràng wǒmen déyǐ yī kuī nàxiē bù zūnshǒu chuántǒng de rén de shìjiè. Nín de dàolù jiāng yǒu suǒ bùtóng, yīnwèi měi gè dǎpò chángguī de chuàngyè gōngsī běnshēn dōu shì yīduàn dútè de lǚchéng.
Bìngfēi suǒyǒu rén dōu duì xīn jìshù jí qí chuàngzào zhě bào yǒu xīwàng; huáiyí lùn zhě hé pīpíng zhě bǐ bì jiē shì. Wǒmen yīzhì rènwéi, kàn dào zhěngtǐ hěn zhòngyào——jìshù de chénggōng hé guòdù. Rán'ér, wǒmen duì zhè zhǒng chéngshí de yāoqiú bìxū chéngrèn, jìshù de jìnbù bùjǐn jǐn shì wǒmen lìshǐ de bèijǐng; tāmen shì lìshǐ de zhǔjiǎo. Huǒ de zhǎngwò, nóngyè shíjiàn de xīngqǐ, chéngshì de juéqǐ: Zhèxiē bùjǐn jǐn shì wǒmen gùshì de zhùjiǎo; tāmen gòuchéngle rénlèi jìnbù de héxīn. Rúguǒ méiyǒu zhèxiē fēiyuè, wǒmen de rìcháng shēnghuó jiù huì xiàng guòqù yīyàng, jǐn xiànyú guānzhù wǒmen yǎnqián de shēngcún xūqiú.
Wèilái bu shì wǒmen zìjǐ chuàngzào de, ér shì wǒmen zìjǐ chuàngzào de. Dāng yǒurén gǎnyú yòng bùtóng de fāngshì qǔdài jiù de fāngshì shí, wèilái jiù huì chūxiàn. Rúguǒ nǐ jiēshòu xiāobónà suǒ chàngdǎo de “bù jiǎng dàolǐ” de rén de guāndiǎn——dǎpò chángguī de xīntài, nǐ jiù néng cóng zhèxiē gàiniàn zhōng huòdé zuìdà de shōuhuò. Zhèyàng zuò kěnéng huì wéibèi nǐ de chūzhōng yǐjí nǐ de fùmǔ, dǎoshī hé zhùfú zhě jiào gěi nǐ de dōngxī. Zhè jiùshì tā de mólì suǒzài.
A WAVE OF CLARITY
Introducing Inflection Theory
There is nothing so practical as a good theory. -KURT LEWIN, PIONEER IN ORGANIZATIONAL PSYCHOLOGY
One day I was on a surfboard-full disclosure, I'm a terrible surfer-watching the waves roll in, trying to choose one that wouldn't leave me tumbling head over heels. And it hit me. Not the wave, but the clarity I'd been chasing.
There were powerful forces below the surface of a breakthrough start-up idea-forces far more important for start-up success than just the idea itself. Just as surfers need to harness the power of waves, start-ups need to harness the power of these forces to increase their chances of unbounded success. Founders could use these forces to improve their likelihood of overcom- ing obstacles on the road to extraordinary success. Suddenly, ....
一波清晰的浪潮
引入拐点理论
没有什么比一个好的理论更实用了。-KURT LEWIN，组织心理学先驱
有一天，我站在冲浪板上——坦白说，我是一个糟糕的冲浪者——看着海浪滚滚而来，试图选择一个不会让我翻滚的浪潮。然后它击中了我。不是浪潮，而是我一直在追逐的清晰。
突破性创业想法的表面之下隐藏着强大的力量——这些力量对于创业成功的重要性远远超过想法本身。正如冲浪者需要利用海浪的力量一样，创业公司需要利用这些力量来增加他们获得无限成功的机会。创始人可以利用这些力量来提高他们克服通往非凡成功道路上障碍的可能性。突然间，
Yī bō qīngxī de làngcháo
yǐnrù guǎidiǎn lǐlùn
méiyǒu shé me bǐ yīgè hǎo de lǐlùn gèng shíyòngle.-KURT LEWIN, zǔzhī xīnlǐ xué xiānqū
yǒu yītiān, wǒ zhàn zài chōnglàng bǎn shàng——tǎnbái shuō, wǒ shì yīgè zāogāo de chōnglàng zhě——kànzhe hǎilàng gǔngǔn ér lái, shìtú xuǎnzé yīgè bù huì ràng wǒ fāngǔn de làngcháo. Ránhòu tā jí zhòng le wǒ. Bùshì làngcháo, ér shì wǒ yīzhí zài zhuīzhú de qīngxī.
Túpò xìng chuàngyè xiǎngfǎ de biǎomiàn zhī xià yǐncángzhe qiángdà de lìliàng——zhèxiē lìliàng duìyú chuàngyè chénggōng de zhòngyào xìng yuǎn yuǎn chāoguò xiǎngfǎ běnshēn. Zhèngrú chōnglàng zhě xūyào lìyòng hǎilàng de lìliàng yīyàng, chuàngyè gōngsī xūyào lìyòng zhèxiē lìliàng lái zēngjiā tāmen huòdé wúxiàn chénggōng de jīhuì. Chuàngshǐ rén kěyǐ lìyòng zhèxiē lìliàng lái tígāo tāmen kèfú tōng wǎng fēifán chénggōng dàolù shàng zhàng'ài de kěnéng xìng. Túrán jiān, ..
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