Singapore Updates Today

 Has Singapore peaked, and is in decline?

What’s the per capita GDP gap between Singapore and the No. 3 most developed economy in SEA? According to the World Bank:

In absolute terms, 4.8x

In PPP terms, 2.0x

Some more geopolitical stats before I go on.

Singapore’s land area is 0.016% of Southeast Asia and 0.9% of the total population, but accounts for 12% of the region’s GDP.

Now consider this. The whole of SEA is not even half of China, both in land area and population. What is the per capita GDP gap between China and Singapore?

In absolute terms, 5.6x

In PPP terms, 4.6x

China is now the second largest world economy by a wide margin. Considering China was admitted to the WTO only in 2001 before its economy truly took off and the numbers are nothing short of astounding.

What do these numbers have to do with Singapore peaking?

Read on!

First, I hope I’ve impressed on you how small but extraordinarily productive Singapore is. We are now batting in uncharted territory, because there is no country like Singapore in scale and development. We are already one of the richest countries in the world, but without resource advantage. We are truly a nation state with a “wealth of talent”, because that’s all we have.

Our size has been a perennial disadvantage, especially in the realm of diplomacy. We are always on the receiving end when any nation decides to throw her weight around. However, our size also confers an unexpected advantage when it comes to making a living. We are small enough to take a bite of the apple and not affect others’ lunch. Singapore will always be more expensive than our neighbors, but we will always reject more than we take in.

Unlike Hong Kong, which has runaway property prices due to speculative pressure arising from persistent low interest rates, Singapore’s property market remains accessible to the youth, especially public housing. Property speculation has been successfully contained and the rise in wages over the past decade amid sluggish growth has more than cushioned the rise in the property index. The youth remain hopeful of setting up homes and families, even those with middling or lower-income careers. Singapore is a family-friendly city, one of the best in Asia.

But the number one competitive advantage of Singapore continues to be her talent. Singapore’s talent train is peerless in SEA. Less than one in a hundred Southeast Asian is a Singapore resident, but there are no schools or outcomes talked about in the same breath as Singapore’s institutions. There are pockets of genius in every country, but that’s pitting millions against the 40,000 born each year. The lack of emphasis on education is the primary reason why I believe most of Southeast Asia will be unable to break out of the middle income trap in the next one or two generations. In fact, their prosperity may regress in the age of AI, robotics and the end of oil because the poorly educated cannot grasp new opportunities that come their way.

Singapore’s main competitor in the 21st knowledge century is China. China’s explosive growth has been paved through the disciplined use of resources and careful nurturing and deployment of talent. China produces 10 million Gaokao entrants a year, and the average graduate is of high quality. Qinghua, Beida, Fudan, Wuhan, Jiaotong, Nanjing, Zhejiang and many others provide the spit and polish. A disproportionate number of these students pursue postgraduate degrees in universities world-wide, despite being handicapped by language. China has a truly amazing education system which delivers extraordinary outcomes, especially when you consider her overall level of development and the continental size within her borders.

Is China a threat and will she cause Singapore’s downfall? After all, she can produce the same number of graduates in 4 years as Singapore in a millennium. China can do it better, faster, cheaper, or so the argument goes.

Here’s the kicker. China does not have to do Singapore in because Singapore cannot steal her lunch. We are no threat to China—we don’t even share a border. Singapore is so small we can always find niches to prosper in. For example, what business does a small island state have planning and executing entire mini-cities in other countries? Yet Singapore has taken the lead on many projects in Asia, including Suzhou Industrial Park and Tianjin Eco-City in China. Can you imagine another country given the same opportunity?

Even with a highly educated workforce, Singaporeans are in demand as expatriates in China. They bring a combination of desirables to the table, including English fluency, familiarity with international business practices, respect for the rule of law, and perhaps most importantly, trustworthiness. There is value in the hard-won Singapore brand.

Is Singapore on the way down? Far from it. Much of our Small Manufacturing Enterprise sector is still sleepy and firmly stuck in the 20th century. We are over-reliant on cheap foreign labor—construction is overstaffed with low-wage laborers. Information technology is still not being embraced in small or even mid-size companies, while many traditional sectors like retail need makeovers. Singapore remains highly attractive to Multi National Corporations (MNCs) for its rare mix of desirables found nowhere else. There is plenty of room for growth domestically.

The good news is, we don’t need many new ideas or innovations to survive or maintain a competitive edge, on account of our size. All we need to do is position ourselves as nimble differentiators, offer what the region does not and maintain our reputation for a square deal in a safe and secure environment.

What is even more positive is the change in the composition of the workforce in the next two decades. The 50 and above generation will retire, and Singapore’s local workforce will transition into a fully educated one for the first time in her relatively short history. The pressure to provide blue collar jobs will be markedly reduced, and we can remake and retool our industries, especially manufacturing. That can only usher in the next phase of development, such as Research and Development (R&D) and becoming first-movers in the industries of the future such as Artificial intelligence (AI), Internet of things (IoT) and the blockchain, just like we did in the 20th with container shipping and wide-body jets.

We are not done yet. Far from it.

For the young, let me tell you the sky has turned brighter. There's a glorious rainbow that beckons those with the spirit of adventure. And there are rich findings at the end of the rainbow. To the young and to the not-so-old, I say, look at that horizon, follow that rainbow 🌈, go ride it. — Lee Kuan Yew (In this speech to the Singapore Press Club on Jun 7, 1996, founding Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew answered the question: Will Singapore survive? Read on in full, click here)

新加坡是否已达顶峰，正在衰落？

新加坡与东南亚第三大发达经济体的人均国内生产总值 (GDP) 差距是多少？根据世界银行的数据：

绝对值：4.8 倍

按购买力平价计算：2.0 倍

在继续之前，我先来了解一些地缘政治数据。

新加坡的国土面积仅占东南亚的 0.016%，人口占东南亚的 0.9%，但却占该地区 GDP 的 12%。

现在想想，东南亚的国土面积和人口都还不到中国的一半。中国与新加坡的人均 GDP 差距是多少？

绝对值：5.6 倍

按购买力平价计算：4.6 倍

中国现在是世界第二大经济体，遥遥领先。考虑到中国在 2001 年才加入世贸组织，经济才真正起飞，这样的数字简直令人震惊。 

这些数字与新加坡的巅峰时期有什么关系？

继续阅读！

首先，我希望我已经让你深刻认识到新加坡的规模之小，却拥有非凡的生产力。我们现在正在探索未知领域，因为没有任何一个国家在规模和发展程度上能与新加坡相比。我们已经是世界上最富有的国家之一，但却缺乏资源优势。我们是一个真正拥有“人才”的民族国家，因为这就是我们拥有的一切。

我们的规模一直是我们的劣势，尤其是在外交领域。当任何国家想要炫耀自己的实力时，我们总是处于被动地位。然而，我们的规模在谋生方面也带来了意想不到的优势。我们足够小，可以轻而易举地吃下苹果，而不会影响到别人的午餐。 新加坡的物价永远比邻国高，但我们的拒绝永远比接受的多。

与香港不同，香港的房价因持续低利率引发的投机压力而失控，而新加坡的房地产市场，尤其是公共住房，仍然对年轻人开放。房地产投机活动得到了成功遏制，过去十年在经济增长乏力的情况下，工资上涨也缓冲了房地产指数的上涨。年轻人仍然对建立家庭充满希望，即使是那些从事中低收入职业的人也是如此。新加坡是一个家庭友好型城市，是亚洲最好的城市之一。

但新加坡最大的竞争优势仍然是她的人才。新加坡的人才培养在东南亚地区无与伦比。东南亚人口中不到百分之一是新加坡居民，但新加坡的学校和教育成果远不及新加坡的机构。每个国家都有天才，但这导致数百万人才与每年出生的4万名新人形成对立。 我认为，东南亚大部分国家在未来一两代人的时间里无法摆脱中等收入陷阱的主要原因在于对教育的重视不足。事实上，在人工智能、机器人和石油资源枯竭的时代，他们的繁荣可能会倒退，因为教育程度低的人无法抓住新的机遇。

新加坡在21世纪知识世纪的主要竞争对手是中国。中国的爆炸式增长得益于对资源的合理利用以及对人才的精心培养和部署。中国每年有1000万高考生，毕业生的平均素质很高。清华、北大、复旦、武汉、交大、南京、浙江等许多高校都为中国提供了高质量的人才。尽管语言不通，但这些学生中仍有相当一部分人选择在世界各地的大学攻读研究生学位。中国拥有一个真正令人惊叹的教育体系，其教育成果非凡，尤其是考虑到其整体发展水平和幅员辽阔的国土。

 中国是威胁吗？她会导致新加坡衰落吗？毕竟，中国四年培养的毕业生数量相当于新加坡一千年培养的毕业生数量。有人认为，中国可以做得更好、更快、更便宜。

关键在于：中国没必要打败新加坡，因为新加坡不可能抢走它的饭碗。我们对中国没有威胁——我们甚至没有接壤。新加坡面积小，我们总能找到发展空间。例如，一个小岛国能有什么生意去规划和执行其他国家的微型城市建设？然而，新加坡在亚洲许多项目中都处于领先地位，包括中国的苏州工业园区和天津生态城。你能想象另一个国家拥有同样的机会吗？

即使拥有高学历的劳动力，新加坡人在中国仍然很受欢迎。他们具备一系列令人向往的品质，包括英语流利、熟悉国际商业惯例、尊重法治，以及或许最重要的——值得信赖。来之不易的新加坡品牌蕴含着巨大的价值。 

新加坡正在走下坡路吗？远非如此。我们的许多小型制造企业仍然处于昏昏欲睡的状态，并且牢牢地停留在20世纪。我们过度依赖廉价的外国劳动力——建筑行业人满为患，充斥着低薪劳动力。信息技术在小型甚至中型企业中仍然未被广泛接受，而许多传统行业，例如零售业，也需要转型。新加坡凭借其在其他地方独有的、罕见的综合优势，对跨国公司 (MNC) 仍然极具吸引力。新加坡国内拥有巨大的增长空间。

好消息是，凭借我们的规模，我们并不需要太多新想法或创新就能生存或保持竞争优势。我们需要做的就是将自己定位为灵活且差异化的竞争者，提供该地区所没有的产品和服务，并在安全可靠的环境中维护公平交易的声誉。

更积极的是未来二十年劳动力结构的变化。50岁及以上的一代人即将退休，新加坡的本地劳动力将在相对较短的历史上首次向受过全面教育的劳动力转变。 提供蓝领工作的压力将显著减轻，我们可以重塑和重组我们的行业，尤其是制造业。这必将开启下一阶段的发展，例如研发 (R&D)，并成为人工智能 (AI)、物联网 (IoT) 和区块链等未来行业的先行者，就像我们在 20 世纪对集装箱运输和宽体喷气式飞机所做的那样。

我们还没有完成。远远没有。

对于年轻人，让我告诉你们，天空已经变得更加明亮。一道绚丽的彩虹在召唤着那些拥有冒险精神的人。彩虹的尽头蕴藏着丰富的发现。对于年轻人和不太老的人，我想说，看看那条地平线，追随那道彩虹🌈，去驾驭它吧。—— 李光耀

• I am Indonesian. I do really admire Singapore. But history spelled out that almost no historical city states last for eternity (expect Vatican, which itself is a remnant, shadow of its glorious past as the center of Papal States). I hope Singapore can defeat history, and become a role model on meritocracy.

But as the rest of the countries in South East Asia develop and become increasingly safe and secure, wouldn’t MNCs want to move there instead for the cheaper labour? We are already seeing this with retrenchment of PMETs right?

Then survival of Singapore would hinge on local development of industry, instead of reliance on MNCs…which would be very difficult since the population has been trained since 1965 to be risk averse, obedient and non-assertive etc.

Though I could be wrong. Thoughts?

I•  disagree. We have full employment. The retrenchment pressure comes from cheaper transient labor for some of these positions, but I think the situation has stabilized since the financial crisis. Labor expansion has slowed to a crawl. KL is right next door, but we still have very healthy numbers for FDI.

• Where is the talent train in SEA to compete with Singapore in its own game? Name me one school you would attend rather than say, SMU. Or show me any report of innovative things that are happening in SEA education outside of Singapore. We’re talking 650 million, mind you.

I agree somewhat with the risk-averse bit. But we only need to grab several big opportunities that come our way, like we’ve done with biotech. There is also huge demand for Singaporean management overseas. We can make a living having satellite “Singapores”, which is already happening today. It is the internationalization of the Singapore brand.

The key regional decision making and other important roles which are further up the value chain are usually in Singapore. Like you said, MNCs have been moving out the roles which are a bit more transactional or replacing by automation where possible.

I’m constantly amazed at your insights and writing skills. Salute!

Your argument are economic-centric perspective and lack of others factors like political, social, legal and technology aspects!

In economic term, land is the basic ingredient for economic activities. Singapore is truly limited land means they need to expand oversea as there are lack of space for future economy growth especially manufacturing sector.

In education, you might boast NUS or NTU are the best in Asia in ranking but the reality is Singapore have the quality but not quantity. China have both quality and quantity as both is not necessary mutual exclusive. Both can come in combo as a key success for Made in China 2025.

Despite Singapore have top notch in education, this help in outstanding achievement but mainly in service sector only. But it is not necessary in other sector say armament manufacturing. Russia universities, mostly not in the first 100 ranking but they can make MBT, fighter jets, submarine, aircraft carrier, nuclier weapons and all kinds of small weapons. How about NUS, I even can't see Made in Singapore small toys for remote control helicopter or aeroplane! Safe to say most are come from China.

In geopolitical perspective, no matter how rich Singapore in term of GDP or ppp, the historical fact is Singapore could be part of Federation of Malaysia in 1963, and 2 year later being kicked out in 1965. In all probability and reality it won't be vice versa, Malaysia can't be part of Singapore. That means Malaysia have the potential to be on par or even exceed Singapore not only in economic term, but politically. Look at 9 May 2018 after GE 14, Malaysia can change government peacefully at the behest of voters. This can't be say will take place in Singapore for the near future! That means Malaysia can become like Singapore in all aspects but for sure not vice versa for Singapore become like Malaysia.

It is good to be proud of Singapore success in economic endeavor, but this economic success cannot be use as benchmark to measure other big country economic development. Singapoe city state success is limited to top notch education, trading hub, natural seaport along Malacca straight and service sector to name a few.

If China want to be superpower, this middle kingdom need to do more than what Singapore doing and not necessary she need to achieve the kind of GDP or PPP level as achieve by Singapore!

Be more world wide view when writing about economic achievement as Singapore is not the centre of universe but just a small “red dot” to the south of peninsular Malaysia! Do not become “obessive compulsive kiasuism” in an attempt to project your egonism!

Thank you for making my day.

Lol..what crap.

A very optimistic outlook but I welcome it.

> 20 Dec 2018

The people who could bring SG down are

Singaporeans who neither Care nor Love SG

We have only about 4 million True Blue

Very low cost to keep

BUT We must not stop there

We must continue to work well and smart

We must continue to expand our business and

Money earning Worldwide with a wider range of Products

China prosperity is a Bonus to us

Which we must make good use of it for a RESPECTABLE 2 Way Gain

ONLY and ONLY

Those who threaten us in any which way

IS bad for us

Cheers & Merry Christmas

GOD BLESS SINGAPORE SINGAPOREANS & OUR GOVERNMENT

.

Brilliant!

My perception is, even with billions touted for Central Gap funding (grants that translate deep research into commercial deployments), Singapore's biggest hurdles are in the hands of authoritarians bent on posturing toward political favourites.

Unless Singapore shifts beyond “choose me, cos I brought in the most revenue” from the private sector, and leans toward “let's empower the need next gen of SMEs”, we are in for a jolt.

No shortage of good ideas. Just the rapid adoption of automation and crowdsourced AI solutions to alleviate labour shortages and increase output. And we are good to go.

China entered into WTO on December 2001, no 1990.

Thanks. The date I had in mind was 1995, but that was Hong Kong. My bad.

Still, would other countries in SEA overtake us anytime soon? We have to be the best to survive right? So if any country in SEA overtakes us economically will we be in trouble?

Who, what and how? Look at the trouble No. 3 is in.

For me, the No. 1 indicator is schools that start making waves. Until that happens, high-quality growth will hit road blocks.

I wish someone would translate this to Chinese. I would like to show my father this answer.

You can ask ChatGPT or Meta Ai to get it translated to any language.

Very important for Singapore that they keep welcoming foreigners into the country. Major issues of that ever changes.

Think about it

Before Nike Adidas

There were no Nike Adidas

Before iPhone

There was no Smart Phones

Before Uber Grab

There was no Uber Grab

Before Driverless Vehicles

There was no Driverless Vehicles

The point IS

SG Authorities must encourage more Singaporeans to be liberal in Business and in Sciences

Those Human and Man Made STUMBLING BLOCKS of Rules Laws By Laws Regulations and all must be removed or lowered to allow our people to flourish beyond present times

I Love that LKY catch Words

NEVER FEAR

Singapore WILL SURVIVE

.

I think you also can stress strategic position and multi-lingual skills. The question, about peaking and decline, is really a bit silly. So long as Singapore provides a decent living for its citizens, it is not in decline.

What to do for / with “blue collar workers” is going to be a question for all nations, and a major determinant of decency.

The kind of blue collar jobs I am referring to are low skill ones.

Understood. There is a world wide problem with employment of low-skiiled people.

👍 Thank you for your write up, very insightful!

Being small used to be one of the advantages for Singapore before we get rich and expensive. Singapore is more nimble and able to move quickly into areas where other SEA countries fails to capturing the market because of their size and bureaucracy. Some of these industries include airlines, shipping, manufacturing, logistic, and finance etc.

Over the last decade, Singapore Airlines were and still are facing strong competition from the Middle East and Chinese Airlines and because of Singapore size, put it in a distinct disadvantage and negate the advantage of the earlier years. How can Singapore Airline competes against the rich ME airlines who have the advantages of cheap oil and cheap money. Or the many Chinese airlines with economy of scale from their support from their internal and external routes. The recent pandemic lockdown demostrates the disadvantages of SIA of not having internal flights to minimize the loss of international travel. Tourism, one of the pillar of Singapore economy is facing the worst crisis in its history because of its lack of internal tourism.

Singapore economy is highly dependent on Finance industry and the Finance industry is not a small bite of the apple that any country can ignore. There will be increasing competition for becoming SEA financial hub in the coming years.

Fortunately, Singapore is the easiest place to do business because of the widely use of English in business and government. The transparency of its business law, honest dealing and comparatively less corruption government and civil servants as compared to other SE Asia countries is now the only key advantages that Singapore currently have. How Singapore will perform in future will depend on how Singapore leaders take advantage of them.